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Sha Tin · 2022-07-16 · 15:33

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2022-07-16 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. NEVER TOO SOON, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Hall, won by 2-3/4, with DECRYPT second and BEAUTY CHAMP third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite RED TITAN finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.21.46
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 NEVER TOO SOON Closed strongly TT 1.21.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Hall 7 7.1 2-3/4
2 4 DECRYPT Closed strongly TT K C Leung · D A Hayes 11 14.0 2-3/4
3 10 BEAUTY CHAMP Closed strongly XB/SR1/TT- L Hewitson · D J Whyte 13 11.0 3
4 12 RED TITAN Closed strongly H/TT J Moreira · J Size 6 3.5 6-1/4
5 1 LUCKY FUN Closed strongly TT2 M F Poon · L Ho 5 20.0 7
6 9 KA YING EXCELLENT CP-/B1/TT H Bentley · T P Yung 3 8.0 7-1/4
7 3 SUPER DYNAMITE M Chadwick · P F Yiu 2 10.0 8
8 7 IMPERIAL MAGEE H/TT R Maia · K H Ting 1 9.9 9-1/2
9 13 BEAUTY MISSION CP A Badel · F C Lor 4 6.0 10-1/4
10 6 FLYING BONUS Led early C L Chau · C H Yip 10 112.0 12-1/2
11 5 HIGHLY PROACTIVE H/P/TT L Currie · C W Chang 8 46.0 12-1/2
12 8 LUCKY QUALITY V K H Chan · C Fownes 14 67.0 14-3/4
13 14 GREAT BRILLIANT H W Lai · Y S Tsui 9 107.0 16
14 2 KILINDINI TT K Teetan · A T Millard 12 24.0 16-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NEVER TOO SOON2. DECRYPT+2.75L3. BEAUTY CHAMP+3L4. RED TITAN+6.25L5. LUCKY FUN+7L6. KA YING EXCELLENT+7.25L7. SUPER DYNAMITE+8L8. IMPERIAL MAGEE+9.5L9. BEAUTY MISSION+10.25L10. FLYING BONUS+12.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick RED TITAN (21.3%) finished 4th — the winner NEVER TOO SOON was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 RED TITAN 21.3% 4.70 4
2 13 BEAUTY MISSION 16.1% 6.22 9
3 11 NEVER TOO SOON 12.6% 7.92 1
4 9 KA YING EXCELLENT 10.3% 9.75 6
5 3 SUPER DYNAMITE 9.8% 10.18 7
6 2 KILINDINI 8.0% 12.45 14
7 10 BEAUTY CHAMP 4.5% 22.18 3
8 4 DECRYPT 4.1% 24.50 2
9 7 IMPERIAL MAGEE 3.8% 26.48 8
10 1 LUCKY FUN 3.5% 28.30 5
11 8 LUCKY QUALITY 2.5% 40.20 12
12 5 HIGHLY PROACTIVE 2.1% 47.31 11
13 6 FLYING BONUS 1.1% 91.48 10
14 14 GREAT BRILLIANT 0.3% 304.67 13
RED TITANBEAUTY MISSIONNEVER TOO SOON — wonKA YING EXCELLENTSUPER DYNAMITEKILINDINIBEAUTY CHAMPDECRYPTIMPERIAL MAGEELUCKY FUNLUCKY QUALITYHIGHLY PROACTIVEFLYING BONUSGREAT BRILLIANT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 71

PLACE

4 41

10 38.5

11 27.5

QUINELLA

4,11 527.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,10 211.5

4,11 163.5

10,11 143

FORECAST

11,4 1,203

TIERCE

11,4,10 11,399

TRIO

4,10,11 1,645

FIRST 4

4,10,11,12 1,983

QUARTET

11,4,10,12 65,303

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 27.5

A1

6TH DOUBLE

10/4 1,128.5

10/11 3,391.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

11,13,14/2,10,11/Any Combination 644,953