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Sha Tin · 2022-07-16 · 14:01

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-07-16 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. ICE LEGEND, ridden by K C Leung and trained by T P Yung, won by 3/4, with YOUTHFUL DEAL second and BEAUTY TYCOON third. The 3.0 favourite BEAUTY TYCOON finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.09.02
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 ICE LEGEND BO/H/TT 1.09.02 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · T P Yung 11 29.0 3/4
2 8 YOUTHFUL DEAL TT1 Z Purton · F C Lor 4 3.7 3/4
3 1 BEAUTY TYCOON A Badel · J Size 9 3.0 1-1/2
4 6 LUCKY GOR H-/B/E1/TT M Chadwick · C Fownes 5 13.0 2-1/2
5 5 CHING L Currie · C W Chang 6 31.0 4
6 2 FALCON TURBO B/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 13 10.0 5-1/2
7 12 ALL IS READY B2 C Y Ho · P F Yiu 8 74.0 6-3/4
8 14 THETA HEDGE V-/H/B1/TT M L Yeung · K W Lui 3 11.0 7
9 11 WHAT A LEGEND B A Hamelin · K H Ting 10 86.0 7-1/4
10 3 WAR OF COURAGE B M F Poon · K L Man 14 48.0 7-1/2
11 9 YOUNG HORIZON SB C L Chau · D A Hayes 1 9.5 9-3/4
12 13 HAPPY FAT CAT H Bentley · A T Millard 7 29.0 10-1/2
13 7 PACKING MONKEYKING L Ferraris · L Ho 2 15.0 18-1/2
14 10 GLORIOUS LOVER V R Maia · C H Yip 12 21.0 21-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ICE LEGEND2. YOUTHFUL DEAL+0.75L3. BEAUTY TYCOON+1.5L4. LUCKY GOR+2.5L5. CHING+4L6. FALCON TURBO+5.5L7. ALL IS READY+6.75L8. THETA HEDGE+7L9. WHAT A LEGEND+7.25L10. WAR OF COURAGE+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick BEAUTY TYCOON (15.9%) finished 3rd — the winner ICE LEGEND was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 BEAUTY TYCOON 15.9% 6.28 3
2 8 YOUTHFUL DEAL 15.6% 6.43 2
3 2 FALCON TURBO 11.9% 8.37 6
4 4 ICE LEGEND 8.8% 11.42 1
5 14 THETA HEDGE 8.2% 12.27 8
6 6 LUCKY GOR 7.3% 13.78 4
7 10 GLORIOUS LOVER 7.0% 14.30 14
8 9 YOUNG HORIZON 6.3% 15.86 11
9 5 CHING 6.1% 16.34 5
10 7 PACKING MONKEYKING 4.0% 25.09 13
11 13 HAPPY FAT CAT 2.8% 35.17 12
12 11 WHAT A LEGEND 2.6% 37.80 9
13 3 WAR OF COURAGE 2.3% 42.90 10
14 12 ALL IS READY 1.2% 83.59 7
BEAUTY TYCOONYOUTHFUL DEALFALCON TURBOICE LEGEND — wonTHETA HEDGELUCKY GORGLORIOUS LOVERYOUNG HORIZONCHINGPACKING MONKEYKINGHAPPY FAT CATWHAT A LEGENDWAR OF COURAGEALL IS READY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 292.5

PLACE

1 14

4 64

8 16.5

QUINELLA

4,8 470

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 155.5

1,8 28

4,8 149

FORECAST

4,8 1,770

TIERCE

4,8,1 4,883

TRIO

1,4,8 425

FIRST 4

1,4,6,8 1,457

QUARTET

4,8,1,6 55,047

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 30.5

A1

A2

3RD DOUBLE

4/4 2,137

4/8 76.5