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Sha Tin · 2022-07-16 · 16:07

Race 8

Class 1 GOOD 1600m Course A 11 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2022-07-16 was Class 1 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. TURIN REDSUN, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Whyte, won by SH, with MONEY CATCHER second and BOURBONAIRE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.34.98
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 TURIN REDSUN Closed strongly B/TT 1.34.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Whyte 4 2.5 SH
2 9 MONEY CATCHER B J Moreira · F C Lor 5 4.7 SH
3 8 BOURBONAIRE H A Badel · J Size 8 4.8 2-1/2
4 3 EXCELLENT PROPOSAL Closed strongly E-/B L Currie · J Size 2 14.0 3-1/4
5 11 CELESTIAL POWER Closed strongly V M F Poon · F C Lor 6 30.0 4-1/2
6 6 FANTASTIC TREASURE TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 1 7.1 4-1/2
7 4 SAVVY NINE Closed strongly B/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte 10 22.0 6-1/2
8 5 KINGS SHIELD Led early B C Y Ho · F C Lor 11 60.0 7-3/4
9 1 MIGHTY GIANT Closed strongly B K C Leung · P F Yiu 3 61.0 9-1/4
10 10 CALIFORNIA TEN B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 7 18.0 10-1/4
11 2 CHAMPION'S WAY P/TT A Hamelin · J Size 9 36.0 16-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TURIN REDSUN2. MONEY CATCHER+0.1L3. BOURBONAIRE+2.5L4. EXCELLENT PROPOSAL+3.25L5. CELESTIAL POWER+4.5L6. FANTASTIC TREASURE+4.5L7. SAVVY NINE+6.5L8. KINGS SHIELD+7.75L9. MIGHTY GIANT+9.25L10. CALIFORNIA TEN+10.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick MONEY CATCHER (24.7%) finished 2nd — the winner TURIN REDSUN was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 MONEY CATCHER 24.7% 4.05 2
2 8 BOURBONAIRE 23.3% 4.30 3
3 7 TURIN REDSUN 20.9% 4.78 1
4 6 FANTASTIC TREASURE 10.6% 9.47 6
5 10 CALIFORNIA TEN 4.5% 22.01 10
6 11 CELESTIAL POWER 3.6% 27.66 5
7 5 KINGS SHIELD 3.4% 29.71 8
8 3 EXCELLENT PROPOSAL 3.1% 31.94 4
9 4 SAVVY NINE 2.3% 42.94 7
10 2 CHAMPION'S WAY 1.9% 52.37 11
11 1 MIGHTY GIANT 1.6% 61.74 9
MONEY CATCHERBOURBONAIRETURIN REDSUN — wonFANTASTIC TREASURECALIFORNIA TENCELESTIAL POWERKINGS SHIELDEXCELLENT PROPOSALSAVVY NINECHAMPION'S WAYMIGHTY GIANT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 25.5

PLACE

7 13

8 16.5

9 16.5

QUINELLA

7,9 53

QUINELLA PLACE

7,8 25

7,9 23.5

8,9 34

FORECAST

7,9 98

TIERCE

7,9,8 228

TRIO

7,8,9 54

FIRST 4

3,7,8,9 190

QUARTET

7,9,8,3 1,954

All pools (4 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

4,10,11/7,8,9 24,075

3 PICK 1

A1 18.5

A2

A3

7TH DOUBLE

11/7 189.5

11/9 98.5

WINNING TRAINER

B4

B1

B3

B2 23