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Sha Tin · 2022-07-16 · 13:01

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2022-07-16 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. ONE STEP AHEAD, ridden by L Currie and trained by C W Chang, won by NOSE, with RUBY STARS second and WINWIN THIRTYTHREE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.3 favourite WINWIN THIRTYTHREE finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.23.23
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 ONE STEP AHEAD Closed strongly 1.23.23 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Currie · C W Chang 10 31.0 NOSE
2 14 RUBY STARS CP/TT A Badel · K L Man 8 6.8 NOSE
3 9 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE Closed strongly V J Moreira · P F Yiu 5 3.3 1/2
4 10 THIS IS CHARISMA Closed strongly CP/TT L Ferraris · D J Hall 13 14.0 3/4
5 5 HEARTY WISH SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 2 7.4 1
6 13 PRIME STAR B/TT H Bentley · A T Millard 1 11.0 2-1/4
7 7 ALLOY KING CP A Hamelin · K H Ting 7 51.0 2-1/4
8 8 SICOMORO Closed strongly H2/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 6 23.0 2-3/4
9 2 TEAM GOODLUCK Led early CP/TT K Teetan · W Y So 4 14.0 3
10 3 BRAVE POWER Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 9 13.0 3-3/4
11 1 AMAZING NEWS Closed strongly P/XB K H Chan · C Fownes 11 15.0 4
12 4 MISSION SMART CP Z Purton · F C Lor 12 13.0 4-1/4
13 12 MULTIPLE STAR M Chadwick · T P Yung 3 23.0 7
14 6 BOOMING WELL TT R Maia · C H Yip 14 21.0 13

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ONE STEP AHEAD2. RUBY STARS+0.05L3. WINWIN THIRTYTHREE+0.5L4. THIS IS CHARISMA+0.75L5. HEARTY WISH+1L6. PRIME STAR+2.25L7. ALLOY KING+2.25L8. SICOMORO+2.75L9. TEAM GOODLUCK+3L10. BRAVE POWER+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick WINWIN THIRTYTHREE (20.1%) finished 3rd — the winner ONE STEP AHEAD was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE 20.1% 4.98 3
2 10 THIS IS CHARISMA 11.1% 9.03 4
3 6 BOOMING WELL 8.5% 11.82 14
4 3 BRAVE POWER 7.8% 12.87 10
5 11 ONE STEP AHEAD 7.6% 13.20 1
6 4 MISSION SMART 7.5% 13.42 12
7 5 HEARTY WISH 6.7% 14.88 5
8 14 RUBY STARS 6.4% 15.67 2
9 2 TEAM GOODLUCK 5.9% 16.93 9
10 1 AMAZING NEWS 5.9% 17.00 11
11 13 PRIME STAR 4.1% 24.56 6
12 7 ALLOY KING 3.2% 31.58 7
13 8 SICOMORO 2.9% 35.01 8
14 12 MULTIPLE STAR 2.6% 38.38 13
WINWIN THIRTYTHREETHIS IS CHARISMABOOMING WELLBRAVE POWERONE STEP AHEAD — wonMISSION SMARTHEARTY WISHRUBY STARSTEAM GOODLUCKAMAZING NEWSPRIME STARALLOY KINGSICOMOROMULTIPLE STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 315

PLACE

9 15.5

11 70.5

14 28

QUINELLA

11,14 1,280

QUINELLA PLACE

9,11 191

9,14 60.5

11,14 368

FORECAST

11,14 2,290

TIERCE

11,14,9 12,885

TRIO

9,11,14 1,443

FIRST 4

9,10,11,14 2,855

QUARTET

11,14,9,10 92,247

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

3/11 3,967.5

3/14 344.5

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 17