Sha Tin · 2022-07-16 · 14:31
Race 5
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-07-16 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. TURQUOISE ALPHA, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by SH, with BRIGHT KID second and MURRAY'S PARTNERS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.2 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | TURQUOISE ALPHA Closed strongly CP/H/XB 1.48.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P O'Sullivan | Z Purton | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 4.2 | SH |
| 2 | 14 | BRIGHT KID Closed strongly B/XB M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 14 | 11.0 | SH |
| 3 | 13 | MURRAY'S PARTNERS Closed strongly V- K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 3 | 21.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 7 | RED ELYSEES B/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 6 | 31.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 5 | SMILING TIME Closed strongly V/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 12 | 24.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 6 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE Closed strongly XB M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 2 | 9.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 8 | SWOT TROOPERS WIND Closed strongly B L Currie · D J Hall | L Currie | D J Hall | 10 | 38.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 9 | BIG BROOK Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 8 | 39.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 4 | KING TOURBILLON B/TT C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 1 | 6.2 | 5 |
| 10 | 10 | HYPERION TREE B A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 7 | 5.5 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 1 | DARCI JOY B K H Chan · P F Yiu | K H Chan | P F Yiu | 9 | 10.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 2 | VICTORY PARK V-/B2/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 4 | 15.0 | 7 |
| 13 | 3 | SHANGHAI DRAGON Led early B H Bentley · T P Yung | H Bentley | T P Yung | 13 | 39.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 14 | 12 | CHATER PINS SR J Moreira · D A Hayes | J Moreira | D A Hayes | 11 | 11.0 | 69-1/4 |
| — | 0 | BORN THE SAME DAY C L Chau · K W Lui | C L Chau | K W Lui | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | HYPERION TREE | 27.5% | 3.64 | 10 |
| 2 | 11 | TURQUOISE ALPHA | 14.1% | 7.07 | 1 |
| 3 | 6 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE | 10.1% | 9.87 | 6 |
| 4 | 12 | CHATER PINS | 7.1% | 14.12 | 14 |
| 5 | 4 | KING TOURBILLON | 7.0% | 14.36 | 9 |
| 6 | 13 | MURRAY'S PARTNERS | 6.1% | 16.30 | 3 |
| 7 | 8 | SWOT TROOPERS WIND | 5.5% | 18.25 | 7 |
| 8 | 1 | DARCI JOY | 5.4% | 18.35 | 11 |
| 9 | 14 | BRIGHT KID | 3.8% | 26.41 | 2 |
| 10 | 3 | SHANGHAI DRAGON | 2.9% | 34.60 | 13 |
| 11 | 7 | RED ELYSEES | 2.9% | 34.65 | 4 |
| 12 | 2 | VICTORY PARK | 2.6% | 38.98 | 12 |
| 13 | 5 | SMILING TIME | 2.5% | 39.24 | 5 |
| 14 | 9 | BIG BROOK | 2.5% | 40.39 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 42
PLACE
11 18
13 66.5
14 42
QUINELLA
11,14 300
QUINELLA PLACE
11,13 198
11,14 112.5
13,14 321
FORECAST
11,14 477
TIERCE
11,14,13 6,692
TRIO
11,13,14 1,928
FIRST 4
7,11,13,14 10,141
QUARTET
11,14,13,7 158,281
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,4,8/11,13,14 150,554
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 23
A3 —
4TH DOUBLE
4/11 1,515.5
4/14 883.5