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Sha Tin · 2022-07-16 · 14:31

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1800m Course A 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-07-16 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. TURQUOISE ALPHA, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by SH, with BRIGHT KID second and MURRAY'S PARTNERS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.48.98
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 TURQUOISE ALPHA Closed strongly CP/H/XB 1.48.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P O'Sullivan 5 4.2 SH
2 14 BRIGHT KID Closed strongly B/XB M Chadwick · W Y So 14 11.0 SH
3 13 MURRAY'S PARTNERS Closed strongly V- K Teetan · C H Yip 3 21.0 1-1/2
4 7 RED ELYSEES B/TT K C Leung · K L Man 6 31.0 3
5 5 SMILING TIME Closed strongly V/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting 12 24.0 3-3/4
6 6 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE Closed strongly XB M F Poon · C W Chang 2 9.0 3-3/4
7 8 SWOT TROOPERS WIND Closed strongly B L Currie · D J Hall 10 38.0 4-1/4
8 9 BIG BROOK Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 8 39.0 5
9 4 KING TOURBILLON B/TT C Y Ho · Y S Tsui 1 6.2 5
10 10 HYPERION TREE B A Badel · F C Lor 7 5.5 5-1/2
11 1 DARCI JOY B K H Chan · P F Yiu 9 10.0 5-1/2
12 2 VICTORY PARK V-/B2/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 4 15.0 7
13 3 SHANGHAI DRAGON Led early B H Bentley · T P Yung 13 39.0 9-1/4
14 12 CHATER PINS SR J Moreira · D A Hayes 11 11.0 69-1/4
0 BORN THE SAME DAY C L Chau · K W Lui

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TURQUOISE ALPHA2. BRIGHT KID+0.1L3. MURRAY'S PARTNERS+1.5L4. RED ELYSEES+3L5. SMILING TIME+3.75L6. RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE+3.75L7. SWOT TROOPERS WIND+4.25L8. BIG BROOK+5L9. KING TOURBILLON+5L10. HYPERION TREE+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick HYPERION TREE (27.5%) finished 10th — the winner TURQUOISE ALPHA was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 HYPERION TREE 27.5% 3.64 10
2 11 TURQUOISE ALPHA 14.1% 7.07 1
3 6 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 10.1% 9.87 6
4 12 CHATER PINS 7.1% 14.12 14
5 4 KING TOURBILLON 7.0% 14.36 9
6 13 MURRAY'S PARTNERS 6.1% 16.30 3
7 8 SWOT TROOPERS WIND 5.5% 18.25 7
8 1 DARCI JOY 5.4% 18.35 11
9 14 BRIGHT KID 3.8% 26.41 2
10 3 SHANGHAI DRAGON 2.9% 34.60 13
11 7 RED ELYSEES 2.9% 34.65 4
12 2 VICTORY PARK 2.6% 38.98 12
13 5 SMILING TIME 2.5% 39.24 5
14 9 BIG BROOK 2.5% 40.39 8
HYPERION TREETURQUOISE ALPHA — wonRIGHTEOUS DOCTRINECHATER PINSKING TOURBILLONMURRAY'S PARTNERSSWOT TROOPERS WINDDARCI JOYBRIGHT KIDSHANGHAI DRAGONRED ELYSEESVICTORY PARKSMILING TIMEBIG BROOK

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 42

PLACE

11 18

13 66.5

14 42

QUINELLA

11,14 300

QUINELLA PLACE

11,13 198

11,14 112.5

13,14 321

FORECAST

11,14 477

TIERCE

11,14,13 6,692

TRIO

11,13,14 1,928

FIRST 4

7,11,13,14 10,141

QUARTET

11,14,13,7 158,281

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,8/11,13,14 150,554

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 23

A3

4TH DOUBLE

4/11 1,515.5

4/14 883.5