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Sha Tin · 2022-07-16 · 17:54

Race 11

Class 3 GOOD 1600m Course A 14 runners

Race 11 at Sha Tin on 2022-07-16 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. ENCOUNTERED, ridden by M F Poon and trained by K L Man, won by 1, with POWERFUL WINGS second and TUCHEL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.3 favourite TUCHEL finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.34.61
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 ENCOUNTERED Closed strongly TT 1.34.61 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · K L Man 2 199.0 1
2 7 POWERFUL WINGS Closed strongly B C Y Ho · P F Yiu 3 3.6 1
3 5 TUCHEL Closed strongly Z Purton · J Size 11 3.3 2
4 6 BLASTOISE Closed strongly L Ferraris · A T Millard 12 65.0 4-1/2
5 9 STORM LEGEND Closed strongly M Chadwick · C Fownes 5 11.0 4-3/4
6 4 SECRET VISION Closed strongly H Bentley · C S Shum 10 6.2 5-1/2
7 13 READY PLAYER ONE Closed strongly B-/CP2/TT V Borges · C W Chang 13 47.0 6-1/4
8 14 LET'S DO IT Closed strongly K Teetan · D J Hall 6 5.8 6-1/2
9 3 RUNNING AHEAD B- C L Chau · T P Yung 7 108.0 8-1/4
10 10 SUPER WINNER Led early TT C Wong · C H Yip 8 32.0 8-1/4
11 8 ODE TO JOY B/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 9 32.0 8-1/4
12 1 CHANCHENG PRINCE XB/TT R Maia · K W Lui 4 52.0 9-1/2
13 11 CHEVALIER PRINCE CP J Moreira · F C Lor 14 12.0 13
14 2 FLY ON EARTH H K C Leung · K H Ting 1 181.0 18-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ENCOUNTERED2. POWERFUL WINGS+1L3. TUCHEL+2L4. BLASTOISE+4.5L5. STORM LEGEND+4.75L6. SECRET VISION+5.5L7. READY PLAYER ONE+6.25L8. LET'S DO IT+6.5L9. RUNNING AHEAD+8.25L10. SUPER WINNER+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick TUCHEL (27.1%) finished 3rd — the winner ENCOUNTERED was rated #14. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 TUCHEL 27.1% 3.69 3
2 14 LET'S DO IT 14.5% 6.91 8
3 7 POWERFUL WINGS 14.2% 7.03 2
4 4 SECRET VISION 12.1% 8.30 6
5 9 STORM LEGEND 7.4% 13.45 5
6 11 CHEVALIER PRINCE 7.0% 14.20 13
7 1 CHANCHENG PRINCE 4.1% 24.64 12
8 13 READY PLAYER ONE 3.1% 32.11 7
9 6 BLASTOISE 2.9% 34.25 4
10 10 SUPER WINNER 2.3% 43.23 10
11 3 RUNNING AHEAD 2.2% 45.20 9
12 8 ODE TO JOY 1.9% 53.20 11
13 2 FLY ON EARTH 0.7% 150.57 14
14 12 ENCOUNTERED 0.5% 196.64 1
TUCHELLET'S DO ITPOWERFUL WINGSSECRET VISIONSTORM LEGENDCHEVALIER PRINCECHANCHENG PRINCEREADY PLAYER ONEBLASTOISESUPER WINNERRUNNING AHEADODE TO JOYFLY ON EARTHENCOUNTERED — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 1,997

PLACE

5 15.5

7 16

12 331.5

QUINELLA

7,12 3,642

QUINELLA PLACE

5,7 30.5

5,12 950.5

7,12 1,037

FORECAST

12,7 7,459

TIERCE

12,7,5 48,280

TRIO

5,7,12 3,113

FIRST 4

5,6,7,12 20,017

QUARTET

12,7,5,6 850,316

All pools (5 more)

10TH DOUBLE

6/7 24.5

6/12 3,782

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 46.5

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

6,7,8/5,7,12 161,743

SIX UP

10,11/4,11/7,9/1,13/6,7/7,12 10,169

10/11/7/13/6/12 4,143,272

1 [Z Purton]

TREBLE

13/6/7 39

13/6/12 9,931