沙田 · 2022-07-16 · 17:54
第 11場
2022-07-16沙田第11場，Class 3，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD。由M F Poon策騎、K L Man訓練的ENCOUNTERED勝出，贏出1。POWERFUL WINGS獲得亞軍；TUCHEL獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.3倍大熱門TUCHEL跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | ENCOUNTERED 後段發力 TT 1.34.61 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 2 | 199.0 | 1 |
| 2 | 7 | POWERFUL WINGS 後段發力 B C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 3 | 3.6 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | TUCHEL 後段發力 Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 11 | 3.3 | 2 |
| 4 | 6 | BLASTOISE 後段發力 L Ferraris · A T Millard | L Ferraris | A T Millard | 12 | 65.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 5 | 9 | STORM LEGEND 後段發力 M Chadwick · C Fownes | M Chadwick | C Fownes | 5 | 11.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 4 | SECRET VISION 後段發力 H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 10 | 6.2 | 5-1/2 |
| 7 | 13 | READY PLAYER ONE 後段發力 B-/CP2/TT V Borges · C W Chang | V Borges | C W Chang | 13 | 47.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 8 | 14 | LET'S DO IT 後段發力 K Teetan · D J Hall | K Teetan | D J Hall | 6 | 5.8 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 3 | RUNNING AHEAD B- C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 7 | 108.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 10 | 10 | SUPER WINNER 早段領放 TT C Wong · C H Yip | C Wong | C H Yip | 8 | 32.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 11 | 8 | ODE TO JOY B/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 9 | 32.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 1 | CHANCHENG PRINCE XB/TT R Maia · K W Lui | R Maia | K W Lui | 4 | 52.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 13 | 11 | CHEVALIER PRINCE CP J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 14 | 12.0 | 13 |
| 14 | 2 | FLY ON EARTH H K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 1 | 181.0 | 18-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | TUCHEL | 27.1% | 3.69 | 3 |
| 2 | 14 | LET'S DO IT | 14.5% | 6.91 | 8 |
| 3 | 7 | POWERFUL WINGS | 14.2% | 7.03 | 2 |
| 4 | 4 | SECRET VISION | 12.1% | 8.30 | 6 |
| 5 | 9 | STORM LEGEND | 7.4% | 13.45 | 5 |
| 6 | 11 | CHEVALIER PRINCE | 7.0% | 14.20 | 13 |
| 7 | 1 | CHANCHENG PRINCE | 4.1% | 24.64 | 12 |
| 8 | 13 | READY PLAYER ONE | 3.1% | 32.11 | 7 |
| 9 | 6 | BLASTOISE | 2.9% | 34.25 | 4 |
| 10 | 10 | SUPER WINNER | 2.3% | 43.23 | 10 |
| 11 | 3 | RUNNING AHEAD | 2.2% | 45.20 | 9 |
| 12 | 8 | ODE TO JOY | 1.9% | 53.20 | 11 |
| 13 | 2 | FLY ON EARTH | 0.7% | 150.57 | 14 |
| 14 | 12 | ENCOUNTERED | 0.5% | 196.64 | 1 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
12 1,997
PLACE
5 15.5
7 16
12 331.5
QUINELLA
7,12 3,642
QUINELLA PLACE
5,7 30.5
5,12 950.5
7,12 1,037
FORECAST
12,7 7,459
TIERCE
12,7,5 48,280
TRIO
5,7,12 3,113
FIRST 4
5,6,7,12 20,017
QUARTET
12,7,5,6 850,316
全部彩池（另 5 項）
10TH DOUBLE
6/7 24.5
6/12 3,782
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 46.5
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
6,7,8/5,7,12 161,743
SIX UP
10,11/4,11/7,9/1,13/6,7/7,12 10,169
10/11/7/13/6/12 4,143,272
1 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
13/6/7 39
13/6/12 9,931