沙田 · 2022-07-16 · 14:31
第 5場
2022-07-16沙田第5場，Class 4，途程1800米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、P O'Sullivan訓練的TURQUOISE ALPHA勝出，贏出SH。BRIGHT KID獲得亞軍；MURRAY'S PARTNERS獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以4.2倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | TURQUOISE ALPHA 後段發力 CP/H/XB 1.48.98 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · P O'Sullivan | Z Purton | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 4.2 | SH |
| 2 | 14 | BRIGHT KID 後段發力 B/XB M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 14 | 11.0 | SH |
| 3 | 13 | MURRAY'S PARTNERS 後段發力 V- K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 3 | 21.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 7 | RED ELYSEES B/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 6 | 31.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 5 | SMILING TIME 後段發力 V/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 12 | 24.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 6 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 後段發力 XB M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 2 | 9.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 8 | SWOT TROOPERS WIND 後段發力 B L Currie · D J Hall | L Currie | D J Hall | 10 | 38.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 9 | BIG BROOK 後段發力 B/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 8 | 39.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 4 | KING TOURBILLON B/TT C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 1 | 6.2 | 5 |
| 10 | 10 | HYPERION TREE B A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 7 | 5.5 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 1 | DARCI JOY B K H Chan · P F Yiu | K H Chan | P F Yiu | 9 | 10.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 2 | VICTORY PARK V-/B2/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 4 | 15.0 | 7 |
| 13 | 3 | SHANGHAI DRAGON 早段領放 B H Bentley · T P Yung | H Bentley | T P Yung | 13 | 39.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 14 | 12 | CHATER PINS SR J Moreira · D A Hayes | J Moreira | D A Hayes | 11 | 11.0 | 69-1/4 |
| — | 0 | BORN THE SAME DAY C L Chau · K W Lui | C L Chau | K W Lui | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | HYPERION TREE | 27.5% | 3.64 | 10 |
| 2 | 11 | TURQUOISE ALPHA | 14.1% | 7.07 | 1 |
| 3 | 6 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE | 10.1% | 9.87 | 6 |
| 4 | 12 | CHATER PINS | 7.1% | 14.12 | 14 |
| 5 | 4 | KING TOURBILLON | 7.0% | 14.36 | 9 |
| 6 | 13 | MURRAY'S PARTNERS | 6.1% | 16.30 | 3 |
| 7 | 8 | SWOT TROOPERS WIND | 5.5% | 18.25 | 7 |
| 8 | 1 | DARCI JOY | 5.4% | 18.35 | 11 |
| 9 | 14 | BRIGHT KID | 3.8% | 26.41 | 2 |
| 10 | 3 | SHANGHAI DRAGON | 2.9% | 34.60 | 13 |
| 11 | 7 | RED ELYSEES | 2.9% | 34.65 | 4 |
| 12 | 2 | VICTORY PARK | 2.6% | 38.98 | 12 |
| 13 | 5 | SMILING TIME | 2.5% | 39.24 | 5 |
| 14 | 9 | BIG BROOK | 2.5% | 40.39 | 8 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 42
PLACE
11 18
13 66.5
14 42
QUINELLA
11,14 300
QUINELLA PLACE
11,13 198
11,14 112.5
13,14 321
FORECAST
11,14 477
TIERCE
11,14,13 6,692
TRIO
11,13,14 1,928
FIRST 4
7,11,13,14 10,141
QUARTET
11,14,13,7 158,281
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,4,8/11,13,14 150,554
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 23
A3 —
4TH DOUBLE
4/11 1,515.5
4/14 883.5