Sha Tin · 2022-09-11 · 14:33
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-09-11 was Class 1 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY SWEYNESSE, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by K L Man, won by 3-1/4, with CAMPIONE second and DUKE WAI third. Victory came as the 2.1 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | LUCKY SWEYNESSE 1.08.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · K L Man | S De Sousa | K L Man | 6 | 2.1 | 3-1/4 |
| 2 | 7 | CAMPIONE TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 7 | 13.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 3 | 4 | DUKE WAI B/H C L Chau · P C Ng | C L Chau | P C Ng | 2 | 10.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | SUPER WEALTHY H- L Currie · D A Hayes | L Currie | D A Hayes | 3 | 16.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 5 | 2 | LUCKY PATCH H/V Y L Chung · P C Ng | Y L Chung | P C Ng | 4 | 14.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 6 | 10 | TRILLION WIN B A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 1 | 5.3 | 7 |
| 7 | 5 | HARMONY AND RICH L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 8 | 74.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 8 | 6 | WINNING DREAMER C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 9 | 6.9 | 8 |
| 9 | 1 | SKY FIELD H/TT K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 10 | 12.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 10 | 8 | KEEP YOU WARM B/XB A Hamelin · K W Lui | A Hamelin | K W Lui | 5 | 75.0 | 14-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | LUCKY SWEYNESSE | 41.2% | 2.43 | 1 |
| 2 | 10 | TRILLION WIN | 12.1% | 8.24 | 6 |
| 3 | 2 | LUCKY PATCH | 8.5% | 11.81 | 5 |
| 4 | 6 | WINNING DREAMER | 7.4% | 13.50 | 8 |
| 5 | 7 | CAMPIONE | 6.7% | 14.89 | 2 |
| 6 | 1 | SKY FIELD | 6.7% | 14.90 | 9 |
| 7 | 3 | SUPER WEALTHY | 6.1% | 16.51 | 4 |
| 8 | 4 | DUKE WAI | 5.7% | 17.49 | 3 |
| 9 | 8 | KEEP YOU WARM | 3.0% | 33.12 | 10 |
| 10 | 5 | HARMONY AND RICH | 2.5% | 39.47 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 21.5
PLACE
4 26
7 39
9 12.5
QUINELLA
7,9 170
QUINELLA PLACE
4,7 243
4,9 41.5
7,9 60
FORECAST
9,7 234
TIERCE
9,7,4 1,752
TRIO
4,7,9 602
FIRST 4
3,4,7,9 1,096
QUARTET
9,7,4,3 12,482
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,5/4,7,9 29,524
3 PICK 1
A1 15.5
A2 —
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
5/7 72.5
5/9 38.5