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Sha Tin · 2022-09-11 · 15:41

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.10.72
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 AMAZING VICTORY H 1.10.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · L Ho 1 3.8 N
2 0 BRAVE DREAMS H/TT S De Sousa · A S Cruz 6 9.6 N
3 0 SCIENCE PATCH B H N Wong · P C Ng 9 43.0 3/4
4 0 TURBO POWER A Hamelin · K W Lui 12 31.0 1-3/4
5 0 PRIDE OF EIGHT XB L Currie · D J Hall 10 40.0 1-3/4
6 0 STARRY NIGHT CP-/B1 Z Purton · D A Hayes 4 6.3 2
7 0 REGENCY BO BO B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 13 39.0 2-1/2
8 0 ADEFILL CP K C Leung · P F Yiu 11 8.8 2-1/2
9 0 RIGHT HONOURABLE H/PC/TT L Ferraris · R Gibson 14 48.0 3-1/4
10 0 ROYAL AGILITY B/TT L Hewitson · Y S Tsui 8 44.0 3-1/2
11 0 AMBITIOUS HEART B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 5 69.0 3-3/4
12 0 BEAUTY TYCOON A Badel · J Size 2 2.5 6
13 0 JAZZ STEED V-/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 7 68.0 7-1/2
14 0 SMILING MOON K H Chan · K H Ting 3 193.0 10-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2022-09-11 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. AMAZING VICTORY, ridden by K Teetan and trained by L Ho, won by N, with BRAVE DREAMS second and SCIENCE PATCH third. The 2.5 favourite BEAUTY TYCOON finished 12th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. AMAZING VICTORY—2. BRAVE DREAMS+0.05L3. SCIENCE PATCH+0.75L4. TURBO POWER+1.75L5. PRIDE OF EIGHT+1.75L6. STARRY NIGHT+2L7. REGENCY BO BO+2.5L8. ADEFILL+2.5L9. RIGHT HONOURABLE+3.25L10. ROYAL AGILITY+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick BEAUTY TYCOON (22.0%) finished 12th — the winner AMAZING VICTORY was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 BEAUTY TYCOON 22.0% 4.54 12
2 0 STARRY NIGHT 16.3% 6.14 6
3 0 AMAZING VICTORY 15.5% 6.44 1
4 0 TURBO POWER 6.5% 15.40 4
5 0 BRAVE DREAMS 6.3% 15.83 2
6 0 ADEFILL 5.9% 17.04 8
7 0 ROYAL AGILITY 5.1% 19.80 10
8 0 SCIENCE PATCH 4.6% 21.95 3
9 0 REGENCY BO BO 4.2% 23.65 7
10 0 RIGHT HONOURABLE 3.7% 27.28 9
11 0 AMBITIOUS HEART 3.2% 30.85 11
12 0 PRIDE OF EIGHT 3.1% 32.61 5
13 0 JAZZ STEED 2.9% 34.63 13
14 0 SMILING MOON 0.8% 126.06 14
BEAUTY TYCOONSTARRY NIGHTAMAZING VICTORY — wonTURBO POWERBRAVE DREAMSADEFILLROYAL AGILITYSCIENCE PATCHREGENCY BO BORIGHT HONOURABLEAMBITIOUS HEARTPRIDE OF EIGHTJAZZ STEEDSMILING MOON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 38.5

PLACE

3 70

4 15

13 22

QUINELLA

4,13 178

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 177

3,13 361.5

4,13 62

FORECAST

4,13 375

TIERCE

4,13,3 6,151

TRIO

3,4,13 1,699

FIRST 4

3,4,8,13 4,980

QUARTET

4,13,3,8 55,093

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 24

A2 —

5TH DOUBLE

2/4 627.5

2/13 213

TRIPLE TRIO

4,7,9/2,4,6/3,4,13 9,719,282

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

4,7,9/2,4,6/Any Combination 2,782