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Sha Tin · 2022-09-11 · 17:53

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2022-09-11 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. GALLANT CROWN, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A T Millard, won by N, with TEMPEST EXPRESS second and ENCOUNTERED third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite NEVER TOO SOON finished 12th.

Result

Official · 1.22.37
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 GALLANT CROWN Closed strongly B/TT 1.22.37 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A T Millard 4 52.0 N
2 8 TEMPEST EXPRESS Closed strongly E-/B2/TT A Hamelin · J Size 1 35.0 N
3 7 ENCOUNTERED Closed strongly TT M F Poon · K L Man 12 8.4 1-1/4
4 1 CIRCUIT STELLAR Led early H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 7 6.4 1-1/2
5 11 BEAUTY CHAMP SR/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte 3 5.6 2
6 2 CAPTAIN WIN Closed strongly XB-/V1 L Ferraris · P C Ng 11 15.0 2
7 13 LUCKY GOLD B/H C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 41.0 2-1/2
8 3 LIGHTNING BOLT Closed strongly H Bentley · C S Shum 14 43.0 2-1/2
9 14 HAPPY DAILY TT S De Sousa · L Ho 2 6.2 2-1/2
10 12 STORM LEGEND A Badel · C Fownes 9 21.0 3-1/4
11 6 KING'S CAPITAL L Currie · D A Hayes 8 50.0 3-3/4
12 4 NEVER TOO SOON Closed strongly TT Z Purton · D J Hall 13 3.5 4-1/4
13 5 PRECISE EXPRESS H/P K C Leung · P F Yiu 5 13.0 6-3/4
14 9 TEXAS MOON P C L Chau · T P Yung 10 55.0 19

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GALLANT CROWN2. TEMPEST EXPRESS+0.05L3. ENCOUNTERED+1.25L4. CIRCUIT STELLAR+1.5L5. BEAUTY CHAMP+2L6. CAPTAIN WIN+2L7. LUCKY GOLD+2.5L8. LIGHTNING BOLT+2.5L9. HAPPY DAILY+2.5L10. STORM LEGEND+3.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick NEVER TOO SOON (23.3%) finished 12th — the winner GALLANT CROWN was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 NEVER TOO SOON 23.3% 4.29 12
2 14 HAPPY DAILY 16.7% 5.97 9
3 1 CIRCUIT STELLAR 9.6% 10.41 4
4 5 PRECISE EXPRESS 6.6% 15.17 13
5 12 STORM LEGEND 6.4% 15.57 10
6 11 BEAUTY CHAMP 6.1% 16.27 5
7 13 LUCKY GOLD 5.4% 18.59 7
8 2 CAPTAIN WIN 5.0% 19.98 6
9 10 GALLANT CROWN 4.9% 20.53 1
10 3 LIGHTNING BOLT 4.5% 22.12 8
11 6 KING'S CAPITAL 3.7% 26.85 11
12 7 ENCOUNTERED 3.4% 29.69 3
13 8 TEMPEST EXPRESS 2.9% 34.04 2
14 9 TEXAS MOON 1.4% 72.40 14
NEVER TOO SOONHAPPY DAILYCIRCUIT STELLARPRECISE EXPRESSSTORM LEGENDBEAUTY CHAMPLUCKY GOLDCAPTAIN WINGALLANT CROWN — wonLIGHTNING BOLTKING'S CAPITALENCOUNTEREDTEMPEST EXPRESSTEXAS MOON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 520.5

PLACE

7 31.5

8 92

10 116

QUINELLA

8,10 4,275

QUINELLA PLACE

7,8 586.5

7,10 658.5

8,10 959

FORECAST

10,8 7,952

TIERCE

10,8,7 122,744

TRIO

7,8,10 16,458

FIRST 4

1,7,8,10 25,672

QUARTET

10,8,7,1 806,455

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 31.5

A1

A2

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,5/7,8,10 1,530,884

9TH DOUBLE

3/8 1,537

3/10 14,096.5

SIX UP

2,6/4,13/5,10/2,12/3,5/8,10 42,333

2 [C S Shum]

1 [Z Purton]

TREBLE

2/3/8 15,458

2/3/10 111,356