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Sha Tin · 2022-09-11 · 16:11

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course A 13 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2022-09-11 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. ORIENTAL SMOKE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by 2-1/2, with E LEGEND second and MR MAJESTIC third. Victory came as the 2.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.06
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 ORIENTAL SMOKE B 1.09.06 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes 6 2.6 2-1/2
2 10 E LEGEND H W Lai · K L Man 3 24.0 2-1/2
3 8 MR MAJESTIC H1 L Hewitson · D J Whyte 1 14.0 2-3/4
4 4 SUPER FORTUNE H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 4 2.8 4-1/4
5 12 LUCKY ARCHANGEL CP/XB M F Poon · F C Lor 8 15.0 4-3/4
6 2 POWER KOEPP E A Badel · J Size 11 7.6 4-3/4
7 6 SOLAR WINDS H/TT K H Chan · C Fownes 9 87.0 5-1/2
8 1 DYNAMIC SPIRIT TT1 H Bentley · C S Shum 5 78.0 5-1/2
9 13 VILLA FIONN B H N Wong · P F Yiu 2 131.0 5-3/4
10 11 GRACYLOVE V H T Mo · D J Hall 7 65.0 6-1/2
11 7 INFINITE POWER CP Y L Chung · P C Ng 10 21.0 6-3/4
12 3 DROPS OF GOD L Currie · J Size 13 20.0 11
13 9 BRILLIANT LIFE B- K C Leung · C H Yip 12 38.0 13-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ORIENTAL SMOKE2. E LEGEND+2.5L3. MR MAJESTIC+2.75L4. SUPER FORTUNE+4.25L5. LUCKY ARCHANGEL+4.75L6. POWER KOEPP+4.75L7. SOLAR WINDS+5.5L8. DYNAMIC SPIRIT+5.5L9. VILLA FIONN+5.75L10. GRACYLOVE+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ORIENTAL SMOKE (27.2%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 ORIENTAL SMOKE 27.2% 3.67 1
2 4 SUPER FORTUNE 19.3% 5.19 4
3 2 POWER KOEPP 12.4% 8.05 6
4 10 E LEGEND 11.9% 8.39 2
5 3 DROPS OF GOD 6.5% 15.31 12
6 11 GRACYLOVE 4.1% 24.14 10
7 12 LUCKY ARCHANGEL 3.9% 25.97 5
8 8 MR MAJESTIC 3.3% 29.86 3
9 7 INFINITE POWER 2.8% 35.77 11
10 1 DYNAMIC SPIRIT 2.4% 41.31 8
11 6 SOLAR WINDS 2.3% 42.81 7
12 9 BRILLIANT LIFE 2.3% 44.28 13
13 13 VILLA FIONN 1.5% 67.60 9
ORIENTAL SMOKE — wonSUPER FORTUNEPOWER KOEPPE LEGENDDROPS OF GODGRACYLOVELUCKY ARCHANGELMR MAJESTICINFINITE POWERDYNAMIC SPIRITSOLAR WINDSBRILLIANT LIFEVILLA FIONN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 26

PLACE

5 12

8 35.5

10 36.5

QUINELLA

5,10 245

QUINELLA PLACE

5,8 82

5,10 82

8,10 283.5

FORECAST

5,10 324

TIERCE

5,10,8 3,608

TRIO

5,8,10 1,128

FIRST 4

4,5,8,10 361

QUARTET

5,10,8,4 9,184

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,13/5,8,10 138,672

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 13.5

A2

6TH DOUBLE

4/5 96.5

4/10 314