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Sha Tin · 2022-09-11 · 16:43

Race 8

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2022-09-11 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. ETERNAL BLOOM, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by P F Yiu, won by SH, with STUNNING IMPACT second and BLISSFUL STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite WIDE BLUE YONDER finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.22.73
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 ETERNAL BLOOM Closed strongly 1.22.73 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · P F Yiu 2 7.8 SH
2 12 STUNNING IMPACT Closed strongly B Y L Chung · P C Ng 3 10.0 SH
3 9 BLISSFUL STAR Closed strongly V/TT S De Sousa · K H Ting 11 20.0 3/4
4 6 WOODFIRE BRO Closed strongly H/TT K C Leung · L Ho 6 6.8 2
5 5 WIDE BLUE YONDER CP Z Purton · D A Hayes 4 3.5 2
6 10 MAXIMIZE HEART C Wong · C H Yip 5 61.0 2-1/4
7 14 CASA LEGEND CP/TT K Teetan · C S Shum 1 6.8 4-1/4
8 13 PERFECT TO GREAT Closed strongly SR/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 10 61.0 4-3/4
9 7 RAINBOW LIGHT Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 13 14.0 5
10 3 LEATHER VANGUARD C L Chau · T P Yung 9 10.0 6-1/2
11 1 EXUBERANT B/TT H Bentley · C S Shum 8 49.0 6-3/4
12 8 KING TOURBILLON Closed strongly B-/TT A Badel · C Fownes 14 12.0 7
13 11 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE XB/B2 M F Poon · C W Chang 12 29.0 7-1/4
14 4 MAGIC SUPREME Led early B/TT H W Lai · K L Man 7 29.0 14-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ETERNAL BLOOM2. STUNNING IMPACT+0.1L3. BLISSFUL STAR+0.75L4. WOODFIRE BRO+2L5. WIDE BLUE YONDER+2L6. MAXIMIZE HEART+2.25L7. CASA LEGEND+4.25L8. PERFECT TO GREAT+4.75L9. RAINBOW LIGHT+5L10. LEATHER VANGUARD+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick WIDE BLUE YONDER (18.6%) finished 5th — the winner ETERNAL BLOOM was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 WIDE BLUE YONDER 18.6% 5.37 5
2 6 WOODFIRE BRO 10.6% 9.42 4
3 9 BLISSFUL STAR 10.1% 9.88 3
4 3 LEATHER VANGUARD 10.1% 9.92 10
5 12 STUNNING IMPACT 9.7% 10.28 2
6 2 ETERNAL BLOOM 6.1% 16.29 1
7 14 CASA LEGEND 6.1% 16.50 7
8 11 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 5.3% 18.77 13
9 7 RAINBOW LIGHT 5.3% 18.80 9
10 8 KING TOURBILLON 5.3% 19.05 12
11 1 EXUBERANT 4.9% 20.34 11
12 13 PERFECT TO GREAT 4.1% 24.67 8
13 10 MAXIMIZE HEART 2.4% 42.26 6
14 4 MAGIC SUPREME 1.4% 71.22 14
WIDE BLUE YONDERWOODFIRE BROBLISSFUL STARLEATHER VANGUARDSTUNNING IMPACTETERNAL BLOOM — wonCASA LEGENDRIGHTEOUS DOCTRINERAINBOW LIGHTKING TOURBILLONEXUBERANTPERFECT TO GREATMAXIMIZE HEARTMAGIC SUPREME

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 78.5

PLACE

2 24.5

9 61

12 30

QUINELLA

2,12 340

QUINELLA PLACE

2,9 240

2,12 112

9,12 254

FORECAST

2,12 751

TIERCE

2,12,9 10,545

TRIO

2,9,12 1,893

FIRST 4

2,6,9,12 3,151

QUARTET

2,12,9,6 74,335

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 23.5

A3

7TH DOUBLE

5/2 198.5

5/12 50