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Sha Tin · 2022-09-11 · 14:01

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 12 runners

Result

Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
2 0 THE HULK K Teetan · C Fownes 10 6.6 3-1/4
3 0 SUCCESS FIGHTER B/TT H Bentley · K H Ting 7 25.0 3-1/4
4 0 GALLANT WAKING XB H N Wong · K W Lui 6 26.0 4-1/2
5 0 SUPER RED DRAGON B/TT C Y Ho · W Y So 13 7.9 4-3/4
6 0 BLISSFUL LIFE TT K C Leung · K L Man 8 56.0 5-1/2
7 0 MELBOURNE HALL B/XB L Hewitson · D J Hall 1 8.3 5-1/2
9 0 MIGHTY STAR B/H/TT A Hamelin · A S Cruz 4 104.0 7-1/4
10 0 BIRDSVILLE SR/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes 9 11.0 7-1/2
11 0 HAPPY HERO B V Borges · C H Yip 14 138.0 8-1/2
12 0 ONE FOR ALL CP/TT A Badel · R Gibson 11 28.0 8-1/2
13 0 COUNTRY TREASURE B-/H/P1 L Currie · J Size 12 13.0 8-1/2
14 0 UNIVERSAL CROWN B L Ferraris · D J Whyte 3 51.0 9-1/4
— 0 SON PAK FU CP-/BO1 C L Chau · T P Yung — 28.0 6
— 0 VICTOR THE WINNER TT1 M F Poon · C S Shum — 2.2 3-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2022-09-11 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. THE HULK, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C Fownes, won by 3-1/4, with SUCCESS FIGHTER second and GALLANT WAKING third. The 2.2 favourite VICTOR THE WINNER did not finish.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
2. THE HULK+3.25L3. SUCCESS FIGHTER+3.25L4. GALLANT WAKING+4.5L5. SUPER RED DRAGON+4.75L6. BLISSFUL LIFE+5.5L7. MELBOURNE HALL+5.5L9. MIGHTY STAR+7.25L10. BIRDSVILLE+7.5L11. HAPPY HERO+8.5L12. ONE FOR ALL+8.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 MELBOURNE HALL 15.0% 6.67 7
2 0 BIRDSVILLE 13.6% 7.35 10
3 0 SUPER RED DRAGON 12.9% 7.77 5
4 0 THE HULK 8.2% 12.13 2
5 0 UNIVERSAL CROWN 8.2% 12.24 14
6 0 GALLANT WAKING 7.9% 12.60 4
7 0 COUNTRY TREASURE 7.9% 12.68 13
8 0 VICTOR THE WINNER 6.0% 16.56 —
9 0 SON PAK FU 4.5% 22.46 —
10 0 BLISSFUL LIFE 4.1% 24.37 6
11 0 SUCCESS FIGHTER 4.1% 24.65 3
12 0 ONE FOR ALL 4.1% 24.67 12
13 0 MIGHTY STAR 1.9% 51.78 9
14 0 HAPPY HERO 1.7% 60.52 11
MELBOURNE HALLBIRDSVILLESUPER RED DRAGONTHE HULKUNIVERSAL CROWNGALLANT WAKINGCOUNTRY TREASUREVICTOR THE WINNERSON PAK FUBLISSFUL LIFESUCCESS FIGHTERONE FOR ALLMIGHTY STARHAPPY HERO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 22.5

PLACE

1 21

3 56

5 13

QUINELLA

1,5 90.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 221.5

1,5 39.5

3,5 106.5

FORECAST

5,1 123

TIERCE

5,1,3 1,974

TRIO

1,3,5 564

FIRST 4

1,2,3,5 2,622

QUARTET

5,1,3,2 28,010

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

4/1 70

4/5 190

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 16.5