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Sha Tin · 2022-09-11 · 17:18

Race 9

Class 2 GOOD 1400m Course A 11 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2022-09-11 was Class 2 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. GOOD LUCK FRIEND, ridden by V Borges and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1, with SAUVESTRE second and PACKING VICTORY third. The winner led throughout. The 4.8 favourite SAUVESTRE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.90
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 GOOD LUCK FRIEND Wire to wire CP/TT 1.21.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · P F Yiu 6 39.0 1
2 5 SAUVESTRE Closed strongly TT Z Purton · F C Lor 7 4.8 1
3 4 PACKING VICTORY Closed strongly TT H Bentley · C S Shum 2 7.4 1-1/4
4 7 JUMBO FORTUNE Closed strongly H/TT A Badel · C Fownes 8 12.0 1-1/2
5 9 SPIRITED EXPRESS B K C Leung · P F Yiu 1 7.6 1-3/4
6 2 THE GOLDEN SCENERY Closed strongly H/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 4 5.1 2
7 11 WINNER METHOD TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 9 8.5 2-1/2
8 10 MASTER DELIGHT B S De Sousa · J Size 5 22.0 3-1/2
9 6 SHINING GEM B C Y Ho · P F Yiu 3 12.0 4
10 8 MASTER MONTARO CP- K Teetan · D A Hayes 10 10.0 5
11 1 CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT CP/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 11 10.0 6

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOOD LUCK FRIEND2. SAUVESTRE+1L3. PACKING VICTORY+1.25L4. JUMBO FORTUNE+1.5L5. SPIRITED EXPRESS+1.75L6. THE GOLDEN SCENERY+2L7. WINNER METHOD+2.5L8. MASTER DELIGHT+3.5L9. SHINING GEM+4L10. MASTER MONTARO+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick SAUVESTRE (23.9%) finished 2nd — the winner GOOD LUCK FRIEND was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 SAUVESTRE 23.9% 4.18 2
2 2 THE GOLDEN SCENERY 14.0% 7.12 6
3 9 SPIRITED EXPRESS 10.1% 9.93 5
4 7 JUMBO FORTUNE 9.6% 10.41 4
5 6 SHINING GEM 8.8% 11.38 9
6 10 MASTER DELIGHT 8.7% 11.54 8
7 11 WINNER METHOD 6.9% 14.44 7
8 4 PACKING VICTORY 6.0% 16.65 3
9 8 MASTER MONTARO 5.0% 20.13 10
10 1 CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT 3.5% 28.41 11
11 3 GOOD LUCK FRIEND 3.5% 28.55 1
SAUVESTRETHE GOLDEN SCENERYSPIRITED EXPRESSJUMBO FORTUNESHINING GEMMASTER DELIGHTWINNER METHODPACKING VICTORYMASTER MONTAROCALIFORNIADEEPSHOTGOOD LUCK FRIEND — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 393

PLACE

3 96

4 24

5 20

QUINELLA

3,5 800.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 423.5

3,5 263

4,5 85

FORECAST

3,5 2,489

TIERCE

3,5,4 17,345

TRIO

3,4,5 2,285

FIRST 4

3,4,5,7 4,736

QUARTET

3,5,4,7 154,476

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 21.5

A1

A2

8TH DOUBLE

2/3 2,764

2/5 65