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Sha Tin · 2022-09-25 · 13:01

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 9 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-09-25 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. WOODFIRE BRO, ridden by K C Leung and trained by L Ho, won by 3/4, with YES WE CAN second and RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.39.41
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 WOODFIRE BRO Closed strongly H/TT 1.39.41 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · L Ho 5 3.5 3/4
2 9 YES WE CAN Closed strongly B/TT S De Sousa · T P Yung 4 6.6 3/4
3 5 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE B-/XB M F Poon · C W Chang 2 3.4 3-3/4
4 1 TOYCOON B Y L Chung · P F Yiu 8 6.0 5-3/4
5 8 FLYING SILVER Closed strongly CP/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 6 32.0 6
6 3 SMOOTHIES Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 7 18.0 6-1/2
7 6 LADY FIRST Closed strongly CP/XB/TT M Chadwick · C W Chang 9 19.0 7-1/2
8 7 OUR CREED Led early V Z Purton · K H Ting 3 6.9 8
9 4 REACH GOAL B/TT A Badel · R Gibson 1 22.0 11-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WOODFIRE BRO—2. YES WE CAN+0.75L3. RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE+3.75L4. TOYCOON+5.75L5. FLYING SILVER+6L6. SMOOTHIES+6.5L7. LADY FIRST+7.5L8. OUR CREED+8L9. REACH GOAL+11.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick OUR CREED (30.8%) finished 8th — the winner WOODFIRE BRO was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 OUR CREED 30.8% 3.25 8
2 4 REACH GOAL 15.5% 6.45 9
3 5 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 12.9% 7.74 3
4 2 WOODFIRE BRO 12.3% 8.13 1
5 9 YES WE CAN 9.4% 10.63 2
6 1 TOYCOON 7.1% 14.07 4
7 6 LADY FIRST 6.5% 15.28 7
8 3 SMOOTHIES 3.5% 28.88 6
9 8 FLYING SILVER 2.0% 49.97 5
OUR CREEDREACH GOALRIGHTEOUS DOCTRINEWOODFIRE BRO — wonYES WE CANTOYCOONLADY FIRSTSMOOTHIESFLYING SILVER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 35

PLACE

2 15.5

5 13

9 21

QUINELLA

2,9 121.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 25

2,9 47.5

5,9 40

FORECAST

2,9 252

TIERCE

2,9,5 618

TRIO

2,5,9 107

FIRST 4

1,2,5,9 127

QUARTET

2,9,5,1 2,480

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 23

A2 —

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1650m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99