Sha Tin · 2022-09-25 · 14:01
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2022-09-25 was Group 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CALIFORNIA SPANGLE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by A S Cruz, won by 2, with HEALTHY HAPPY second and DUKE WAI third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 1.1 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | CALIFORNIA SPANGLE Wire to wire TT 1.20.49 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 5 | 1.1 | 2 |
| 2 | 4 | HEALTHY HAPPY Closed strongly V/TT S De Sousa · F C Lor | S De Sousa | F C Lor | 2 | 12.0 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | DUKE WAI B/H M Chadwick · P C Ng | M Chadwick | P C Ng | 1 | 10.0 | 5 |
| 4 | 5 | MIGHTY GIANT Closed strongly B K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 6 | 34.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 5 | 6 | CHEERFUL DAYS B A Badel · K W Lui | A Badel | K W Lui | 4 | 16.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 6 | 1 | WILL POWER XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 3 | 33.0 | 6-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | CALIFORNIA SPANGLE | 66.1% | 1.51 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | WILL POWER | 12.2% | 8.22 | 6 |
| 3 | 3 | DUKE WAI | 7.0% | 14.32 | 3 |
| 4 | 4 | HEALTHY HAPPY | 6.8% | 14.76 | 2 |
| 5 | 6 | CHEERFUL DAYS | 5.8% | 17.22 | 5 |
| 6 | 5 | MIGHTY GIANT | 2.2% | 45.29 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 11
PLACE
2 11
4 22.5
QUINELLA
2,4 31.5
FORECAST
2,4 33
TIERCE
2,4,3 65
TRIO
2,3,4 31
FIRST 4
2,3,4,5 70
QUARTET
2,4,3,5 372
2ND DOUBLE
4/2 55
4/4 69.5