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Sha Tin · 2022-09-25 · 15:36

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1000m Course C 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2022-09-25 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. JOYFUL WIN, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by P F Yiu, won by N, with FLYING DRAGON second and SUMMIT CHEERS third. The 3.5 favourite SUMMIT CHEERS finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 0.56.69
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 JOYFUL WIN B 0.56.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · P F Yiu 9 32.0 N
2 12 FLYING DRAGON C Wong · C H Yip 11 22.0 N
3 9 SUMMIT CHEERS TT Y L Chung · D J Hall 14 3.5 1/2
4 8 SOLAR WINDS H/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 5 36.0 1/2
5 10 ADIOS V M Chadwick · F C Lor 6 7.9 3/4
6 1 METRO WARRIOR B Z Purton · D A Hayes 7 7.2 1
7 11 LUCKY QUALITY V K H Chan · C Fownes 3 62.0 1-3/4
8 3 FLYING SEASON B/TT S De Sousa · K L Man 10 5.5 1-3/4
9 6 CLASSIC POSH M F Poon · D J Hall 4 55.0 2-1/4
10 14 KA YING SPIRIT B/TT H Bentley · C S Shum 12 4.6 2-1/2
11 2 PING HAI BRAVO TT C L Chau · J Size 13 35.0 3-3/4
12 7 SMOKEY BEAR H/XB/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 2 38.0 4
13 13 SUPER AXIOM H/P/TT H T Mo · Y S Tsui 1 14.0 4-1/4
14 5 SUPER KING SR/CP1/TT L Currie · D J Whyte 8 98.0 5-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. JOYFUL WIN2. FLYING DRAGON+0.05L3. SUMMIT CHEERS+0.5L4. SOLAR WINDS+0.5L5. ADIOS+0.75L6. METRO WARRIOR+1L7. LUCKY QUALITY+1.75L8. FLYING SEASON+1.75L9. CLASSIC POSH+2.25L10. KA YING SPIRIT+2.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick METRO WARRIOR (17.2%) finished 6th — the winner JOYFUL WIN was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 METRO WARRIOR 17.2% 5.82 6
2 9 SUMMIT CHEERS 16.0% 6.24 3
3 10 ADIOS 16.0% 6.25 5
4 3 FLYING SEASON 9.6% 10.45 8
5 13 SUPER AXIOM 7.6% 13.21 13
6 14 KA YING SPIRIT 6.8% 14.60 10
7 12 FLYING DRAGON 4.6% 21.91 2
8 6 CLASSIC POSH 4.5% 22.21 9
9 4 JOYFUL WIN 4.5% 22.34 1
10 2 PING HAI BRAVO 3.9% 25.77 11
11 11 LUCKY QUALITY 3.3% 30.28 7
12 8 SOLAR WINDS 2.7% 37.00 4
13 7 SMOKEY BEAR 2.0% 49.93 12
14 5 SUPER KING 1.4% 73.49 14
METRO WARRIORSUMMIT CHEERSADIOSFLYING SEASONSUPER AXIOMKA YING SPIRITFLYING DRAGONCLASSIC POSHJOYFUL WIN — wonPING HAI BRAVOLUCKY QUALITYSOLAR WINDSSMOKEY BEARSUPER KING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 323

PLACE

4 64

9 16.5

12 53

QUINELLA

4,12 3,160

QUINELLA PLACE

4,9 184

4,12 819

9,12 154.5

FORECAST

4,12 7,360

TIERCE

4,12,9 48,777

TRIO

4,9,12 3,337

FIRST 4

4,8,9,12 23,242

QUARTET

4,12,9,8 846,292

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 37

5TH DOUBLE

10/4 4,284

10/12 558.5

TRIPLE TRIO

2,3,6/1,7,10/4,9,12 6,783,400

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,3,6/1,7,10/Any Combination 6,285