Sha Tin · 2022-09-25 · 14:31
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-09-25 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SWEET ENCOUNTER, ridden by A Badel and trained by J Size, won by 2, with SCIENCE PATCH second and LUCKY ARCHANGEL third. The 3.9 favourite SCIENCE PATCH finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | SWEET ENCOUNTER 1.09.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 3 | 15.0 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | SCIENCE PATCH B-/V1 S De Sousa · P C Ng | S De Sousa | P C Ng | 2 | 3.9 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL CP/XB Y L Chung · F C Lor | Y L Chung | F C Lor | 1 | 4.8 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 1 | FUN N GLORY TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 7 | 4.5 | 3 |
| 5 | 5 | TURBO POWER C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 8 | 6.6 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 7 | EASY SNIP C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 5 | 28.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 11 | REGENT GLORY L Currie · D A Hayes | L Currie | D A Hayes | 12 | 9.5 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 9 | DOUBLE SHOW B-/SR2/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 4 | 9.8 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 12 | JAZZ STEED TT M L Yeung · C Fownes | M L Yeung | C Fownes | 6 | 75.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 4 | SWEET DIAMOND TT K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 9 | 25.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 10 | MIGHTY STAR B/H/TT A Hamelin · A S Cruz | A Hamelin | A S Cruz | 10 | 88.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 8 | SHENZHOU TWELVE V Borges · Y S Tsui | V Borges | Y S Tsui | 11 | 111.0 | 7 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | FUN N GLORY | 18.2% | 5.48 | 4 |
| 2 | 9 | DOUBLE SHOW | 16.4% | 6.10 | 8 |
| 3 | 3 | SCIENCE PATCH | 14.4% | 6.93 | 2 |
| 4 | 4 | SWEET DIAMOND | 10.4% | 9.61 | 10 |
| 5 | 2 | LUCKY ARCHANGEL | 9.1% | 11.02 | 3 |
| 6 | 5 | TURBO POWER | 8.3% | 12.10 | 5 |
| 7 | 6 | SWEET ENCOUNTER | 7.0% | 14.29 | 1 |
| 8 | 7 | EASY SNIP | 6.4% | 15.72 | 6 |
| 9 | 11 | REGENT GLORY | 6.0% | 16.77 | 7 |
| 10 | 12 | JAZZ STEED | 1.5% | 66.62 | 9 |
| 11 | 10 | MIGHTY STAR | 1.5% | 68.60 | 11 |
| 12 | 8 | SHENZHOU TWELVE | 0.9% | 108.28 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 151.5
PLACE
2 16
3 16.5
6 50
QUINELLA
3,6 384.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 41
2,6 128.5
3,6 128.5
FORECAST
6,3 984
TIERCE
6,3,2 4,048
TRIO
2,3,6 425
FIRST 4
1,2,3,6 611
QUARTET
6,3,2,1 19,896
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,3,4/2,3,6 2,019
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 36
3RD DOUBLE
2/3 10.5
2/6 183.5