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Sha Tin · 2022-09-25 · 15:03

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.90
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 STAR CONTACT Closed strongly B/TT 1.21.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · D A Hayes 12 15.0 N
2 0 HAPPY DAILY Closed strongly TT Z Purton · L Ho 10 5.6 N
3 0 ALL IS GOOD Closed strongly L Ferraris · K W Lui 2 8.3 1
4 0 STUNNING IMPACT Closed strongly B S De Sousa · P C Ng 1 2.8 2-3/4
5 0 CIRCUIT MIGHTY TT K C Leung · K L Man 3 6.6 4
6 0 FIRE BALL Led early A Hamelin · C H Yip 9 10.0 4-1/2
7 0 GENERAL WINNER Closed strongly CP H Bentley · K H Ting 11 25.0 5-1/4
8 0 ROYAL CAMPBELL V/TT2 L Hewitson · P F Yiu 4 8.5 5-1/2
9 0 JACK WIN B/H/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 5 14.0 5-1/2
10 0 QUORUM B/TT V Borges · R Gibson 6 56.0 7-1/4
11 0 GREAT BRILLIANT H W Lai · Y S Tsui 8 142.0 9-1/4
12 0 SEATOSKY H- M F Poon · P F Yiu 7 104.0 9-1/2
— 0 HAPPY LAND C L Chau · T P Yung — — —
— 0 THE HULK Y L Chung · C Fownes — — —
— 0 KARUIZAWA A Badel · C S Shum — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-09-25 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. STAR CONTACT, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by D A Hayes, won by N, with HAPPY DAILY second and ALL IS GOOD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite STUNNING IMPACT finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. STAR CONTACT—2. HAPPY DAILY+0.05L3. ALL IS GOOD+1L4. STUNNING IMPACT+2.75L5. CIRCUIT MIGHTY+4L6. FIRE BALL+4.5L7. GENERAL WINNER+5.25L8. ROYAL CAMPBELL+5.5L9. JACK WIN+5.5L10. QUORUM+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick HAPPY DAILY (17.1%) finished 2nd — the winner STAR CONTACT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 HAPPY DAILY 17.1% 5.85 2
2 0 STAR CONTACT 16.8% 5.94 1
3 0 STUNNING IMPACT 16.4% 6.08 4
4 0 ALL IS GOOD 13.5% 7.38 3
5 0 CIRCUIT MIGHTY 10.0% 10.01 5
6 0 ROYAL CAMPBELL 9.0% 11.12 8
7 0 FIRE BALL 6.3% 15.88 6
8 0 GENERAL WINNER 3.6% 28.16 7
9 0 JACK WIN 3.0% 32.97 9
10 0 QUORUM 1.8% 56.35 10
11 0 SEATOSKY 1.7% 59.21 12
12 0 GREAT BRILLIANT 0.7% 133.60 11
HAPPY DAILYSTAR CONTACT — wonSTUNNING IMPACTALL IS GOODCIRCUIT MIGHTYROYAL CAMPBELLFIRE BALLGENERAL WINNERJACK WINQUORUMSEATOSKYGREAT BRILLIANT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 159.5

PLACE

1 19

7 28.5

10 37.5

QUINELLA

1,10 416.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 86

1,10 125

7,10 193.5

FORECAST

10,1 1,010

TIERCE

10,1,7 7,303

TRIO

1,7,10 1,207

FIRST 4

1,6,7,10 524

QUARTET

10,1,7,6 19,877

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 —

A3 21.5

4TH DOUBLE

6/1 175.5

6/10 1,983.5