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Sha Tin · 2022-09-25 · 15:03

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C 12 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-09-25 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. STAR CONTACT, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by D A Hayes, won by N, with HAPPY DAILY second and ALL IS GOOD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite STUNNING IMPACT finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.21.90
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 STAR CONTACT Closed strongly B/TT 1.21.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · D A Hayes 12 15.0 N
2 1 HAPPY DAILY Closed strongly TT Z Purton · L Ho 10 5.6 N
3 7 ALL IS GOOD Closed strongly L Ferraris · K W Lui 2 8.3 1
4 6 STUNNING IMPACT Closed strongly B S De Sousa · P C Ng 1 2.8 2-3/4
5 4 CIRCUIT MIGHTY TT K C Leung · K L Man 3 6.6 4
6 12 FIRE BALL Led early A Hamelin · C H Yip 9 10.0 4-1/2
7 5 GENERAL WINNER Closed strongly CP H Bentley · K H Ting 11 25.0 5-1/4
8 9 ROYAL CAMPBELL V/TT2 L Hewitson · P F Yiu 4 8.5 5-1/2
9 13 JACK WIN B/H/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 5 14.0 5-1/2
10 14 QUORUM B/TT V Borges · R Gibson 6 56.0 7-1/4
11 3 GREAT BRILLIANT H W Lai · Y S Tsui 8 142.0 9-1/4
12 11 SEATOSKY H- M F Poon · P F Yiu 7 104.0 9-1/2
0 KARUIZAWA A Badel · C S Shum
2 THE HULK Y L Chung · C Fownes
8 HAPPY LAND C L Chau · T P Yung

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. STAR CONTACT2. HAPPY DAILY+0.05L3. ALL IS GOOD+1L4. STUNNING IMPACT+2.75L5. CIRCUIT MIGHTY+4L6. FIRE BALL+4.5L7. GENERAL WINNER+5.25L8. ROYAL CAMPBELL+5.5L9. JACK WIN+5.5L10. QUORUM+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick HAPPY DAILY (17.1%) finished 2nd — the winner STAR CONTACT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 HAPPY DAILY 17.1% 5.85 2
2 10 STAR CONTACT 16.8% 5.94 1
3 6 STUNNING IMPACT 16.4% 6.08 4
4 7 ALL IS GOOD 13.5% 7.38 3
5 4 CIRCUIT MIGHTY 10.0% 10.01 5
6 9 ROYAL CAMPBELL 9.0% 11.12 8
7 12 FIRE BALL 6.3% 15.88 6
8 5 GENERAL WINNER 3.6% 28.16 7
9 13 JACK WIN 3.0% 32.97 9
10 14 QUORUM 1.8% 56.35 10
11 11 SEATOSKY 1.7% 59.21 12
12 3 GREAT BRILLIANT 0.7% 133.60 11
HAPPY DAILYSTAR CONTACT — wonSTUNNING IMPACTALL IS GOODCIRCUIT MIGHTYROYAL CAMPBELLFIRE BALLGENERAL WINNERJACK WINQUORUMSEATOSKYGREAT BRILLIANT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 159.5

PLACE

1 19

7 28.5

10 37.5

QUINELLA

1,10 416.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 86

1,10 125

7,10 193.5

FORECAST

10,1 1,010

TIERCE

10,1,7 7,303

TRIO

1,7,10 1,207

FIRST 4

1,6,7,10 524

QUARTET

10,1,7,6 19,877

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 21.5

4TH DOUBLE

6/1 175.5

6/10 1,983.5