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Sha Tin · 2022-09-25 · 16:17

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2022-09-25 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GOOD BUDDY, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by D J Hall, won by 3/4, with KING OF THE COURT second and UNIVERSAL HORIZON third. The 1.7 favourite YOUTHFUL DEAL finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.09.26
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 GOOD BUDDY 1.09.26 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · D J Hall 11 16.0 3/4
2 11 KING OF THE COURT CP-/TT- S De Sousa · D J Whyte 1 6.1 3/4
3 4 UNIVERSAL HORIZON C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 6.7 1-1/2
4 2 SUPER SUNNY SING H K C Leung · W Y So 12 18.0 2-1/4
5 10 BRAVE DREAMS H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 9 13.0 2-1/4
6 12 TSUEN WAN GLORY B-/TT1 H W Lai · K L Man 2 148.0 4
7 7 JOYFUL CHAMPION TT A Hamelin · C W Chang 5 46.0 4-1/4
8 3 REGENCY BO BO B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 8 35.0 4-1/4
9 6 YOUTHFUL DEAL TT Z Purton · F C Lor 7 1.7 4-3/4
10 5 ROYAL PRIDE V/TT K H Chan · C Fownes 3 34.0 5-1/2
11 8 NOBLE ACE H1/P1 A Badel · J Size 4 18.0 6-1/4
12 9 FORTUNE TURBO B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 10 170.0 16-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOOD BUDDY2. KING OF THE COURT+0.75L3. UNIVERSAL HORIZON+1.5L4. SUPER SUNNY SING+2.25L5. BRAVE DREAMS+2.25L6. TSUEN WAN GLORY+4L7. JOYFUL CHAMPION+4.25L8. REGENCY BO BO+4.25L9. YOUTHFUL DEAL+4.75L10. ROYAL PRIDE+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick YOUTHFUL DEAL (25.0%) finished 9th — the winner GOOD BUDDY was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 YOUTHFUL DEAL 25.0% 3.99 9
2 4 UNIVERSAL HORIZON 20.6% 4.85 3
3 11 KING OF THE COURT 9.4% 10.63 2
4 10 BRAVE DREAMS 9.1% 10.99 5
5 2 SUPER SUNNY SING 8.2% 12.14 4
6 1 GOOD BUDDY 7.1% 14.12 1
7 5 ROYAL PRIDE 6.6% 15.16 10
8 8 NOBLE ACE 5.7% 17.48 11
9 3 REGENCY BO BO 3.3% 29.86 8
10 7 JOYFUL CHAMPION 3.2% 30.99 7
11 12 TSUEN WAN GLORY 0.9% 112.50 6
12 9 FORTUNE TURBO 0.7% 134.63 12
YOUTHFUL DEALUNIVERSAL HORIZONKING OF THE COURTBRAVE DREAMSSUPER SUNNY SINGGOOD BUDDY — wonROYAL PRIDENOBLE ACEREGENCY BO BOJOYFUL CHAMPIONTSUEN WAN GLORYFORTUNE TURBO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 168

PLACE

1 34

4 19.5

11 17

QUINELLA

1,11 384.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 112

1,11 101

4,11 55.5

FORECAST

1,11 1,054

TIERCE

1,11,4 5,699

TRIO

1,4,11 566

FIRST 4

1,2,4,11 1,982

QUARTET

1,11,4,2 57,460

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

4,9,12/1,4,11 598,400

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 48.5

6TH DOUBLE

4/1 5,105

4/11 514