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Sha Tin · 2022-09-25 · 16:48

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course C 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.34.80
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 LOOKING GREAT Closed strongly CP/TT 1.34.80 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · F C Lor 7 33.0 N
2 0 ENTRUSTED Closed strongly CP/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 12 42.0 N
3 0 POWERFUL WINGS Closed strongly B S De Sousa · P F Yiu 10 3.1 1/2
4 0 LOOKING COOL PC Z Purton · F C Lor 13 5.6 1-3/4
5 0 HIT THE SHOT Closed strongly TT A Badel · J Size 14 13.0 2
6 0 ENCOUNTERED TT M F Poon · K L Man 2 4.2 2-3/4
7 0 TOTAL POWER B K H Chan · D J Hall 1 18.0 2-3/4
8 0 WINNING DRAGON Led early H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 6 36.0 3-1/4
9 0 NORDIC SKY SR/XB C L Chau · A T Millard 9 68.0 4
10 0 BOOM ALLIANCE Closed strongly SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 8 48.0 5-1/2
11 0 SECRET VISION TT1 H Bentley · C S Shum 5 6.1 5-1/2
12 0 MOONLIGHT VISTA Closed strongly TT1 H N Wong · P C Ng 11 194.0 6
13 0 ODE TO JOY B/H1/XB1/TT M L Yeung · D J Whyte 4 51.0 6-1/4
14 0 PEGASUS GENERAL V K C Leung · K H Ting 3 25.0 6-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2022-09-25 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. LOOKING GREAT, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by F C Lor, won by N, with ENTRUSTED second and POWERFUL WINGS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite POWERFUL WINGS finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LOOKING GREAT—2. ENTRUSTED+0.05L3. POWERFUL WINGS+0.5L4. LOOKING COOL+1.75L5. HIT THE SHOT+2L6. ENCOUNTERED+2.75L7. TOTAL POWER+2.75L8. WINNING DRAGON+3.25L9. NORDIC SKY+4L10. BOOM ALLIANCE+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick POWERFUL WINGS (26.9%) finished 3rd — the winner LOOKING GREAT was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 POWERFUL WINGS 26.9% 3.71 3
2 0 LOOKING COOL 16.7% 5.99 4
3 0 ENCOUNTERED 13.0% 7.71 6
4 0 SECRET VISION 7.6% 13.21 11
5 0 LOOKING GREAT 6.0% 16.77 1
6 0 TOTAL POWER 5.8% 17.38 7
7 0 HIT THE SHOT 4.5% 22.00 5
8 0 PEGASUS GENERAL 4.4% 22.48 14
9 0 ENTRUSTED 4.0% 24.74 2
10 0 NORDIC SKY 4.0% 25.24 9
11 0 ODE TO JOY 2.3% 44.02 13
12 0 BOOM ALLIANCE 2.2% 44.89 10
13 0 WINNING DRAGON 2.0% 50.19 8
14 0 MOONLIGHT VISTA 0.6% 159.50 12
POWERFUL WINGSLOOKING COOLENCOUNTEREDSECRET VISIONLOOKING GREAT — wonTOTAL POWERHIT THE SHOTPEGASUS GENERALENTRUSTEDNORDIC SKYODE TO JOYBOOM ALLIANCEWINNING DRAGONMOONLIGHT VISTA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 334.5

PLACE

1 74.5

3 15.5

8 91.5

QUINELLA

1,8 2,249

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 191

1,8 541

3,8 218.5

FORECAST

1,8 4,559

TIERCE

1,8,3 23,738

TRIO

1,3,8 2,729

FIRST 4

1,3,8,9 2,372

QUARTET

1,8,3,9 76,324

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 43

A1 —

7TH DOUBLE

1/1 3,702

1/8 880