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Sha Tin · 2022-09-25 · 16:48

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course C 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2022-09-25 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. LOOKING GREAT, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by F C Lor, won by N, with ENTRUSTED second and POWERFUL WINGS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite POWERFUL WINGS finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.34.80
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 LOOKING GREAT Closed strongly CP/TT 1.34.80 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · F C Lor 7 33.0 N
2 8 ENTRUSTED Closed strongly CP/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 12 42.0 N
3 3 POWERFUL WINGS Closed strongly B S De Sousa · P F Yiu 10 3.1 1/2
4 9 LOOKING COOL PC Z Purton · F C Lor 13 5.6 1-3/4
5 11 HIT THE SHOT Closed strongly TT A Badel · J Size 14 13.0 2
6 4 ENCOUNTERED TT M F Poon · K L Man 2 4.2 2-3/4
7 7 TOTAL POWER B K H Chan · D J Hall 1 18.0 2-3/4
8 6 WINNING DRAGON Led early H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 6 36.0 3-1/4
9 5 NORDIC SKY SR/XB C L Chau · A T Millard 9 68.0 4
10 13 BOOM ALLIANCE Closed strongly SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 8 48.0 5-1/2
11 2 SECRET VISION TT1 H Bentley · C S Shum 5 6.1 5-1/2
12 12 MOONLIGHT VISTA Closed strongly TT1 H N Wong · P C Ng 11 194.0 6
13 14 ODE TO JOY B/H1/XB1/TT M L Yeung · D J Whyte 4 51.0 6-1/4
14 10 PEGASUS GENERAL V K C Leung · K H Ting 3 25.0 6-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LOOKING GREAT2. ENTRUSTED+0.05L3. POWERFUL WINGS+0.5L4. LOOKING COOL+1.75L5. HIT THE SHOT+2L6. ENCOUNTERED+2.75L7. TOTAL POWER+2.75L8. WINNING DRAGON+3.25L9. NORDIC SKY+4L10. BOOM ALLIANCE+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick POWERFUL WINGS (26.9%) finished 3rd — the winner LOOKING GREAT was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 POWERFUL WINGS 26.9% 3.71 3
2 9 LOOKING COOL 16.7% 5.99 4
3 4 ENCOUNTERED 13.0% 7.71 6
4 2 SECRET VISION 7.6% 13.21 11
5 1 LOOKING GREAT 6.0% 16.77 1
6 7 TOTAL POWER 5.8% 17.38 7
7 11 HIT THE SHOT 4.5% 22.00 5
8 10 PEGASUS GENERAL 4.4% 22.48 14
9 8 ENTRUSTED 4.0% 24.74 2
10 5 NORDIC SKY 4.0% 25.24 9
11 14 ODE TO JOY 2.3% 44.02 13
12 13 BOOM ALLIANCE 2.2% 44.89 10
13 6 WINNING DRAGON 2.0% 50.19 8
14 12 MOONLIGHT VISTA 0.6% 159.50 12
POWERFUL WINGSLOOKING COOLENCOUNTEREDSECRET VISIONLOOKING GREAT — wonTOTAL POWERHIT THE SHOTPEGASUS GENERALENTRUSTEDNORDIC SKYODE TO JOYBOOM ALLIANCEWINNING DRAGONMOONLIGHT VISTA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 334.5

PLACE

1 74.5

3 15.5

8 91.5

QUINELLA

1,8 2,249

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 191

1,8 541

3,8 218.5

FORECAST

1,8 4,559

TIERCE

1,8,3 23,738

TRIO

1,3,8 2,729

FIRST 4

1,3,8,9 2,372

QUARTET

1,8,3,9 76,324

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 43

7TH DOUBLE

1/1 3,702

1/8 880