Sha Tin · 2022-10-23 · 13:01
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-23 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. EL JEFE, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by C H Yip, won by 3, with CHIU CHOW BROTHER second and SUNNY BABY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite SUNNY BABY finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | EL JEFE Closed strongly V1 1.21.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 2 | 13.0 | 3 |
| 2 | 5 | CHIU CHOW BROTHER Closed strongly B C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 13 | 8.4 | 3 |
| 3 | 2 | SUNNY BABY Closed strongly Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 8 | 3.1 | 4-3/4 |
| 4 | 14 | ZACIAN M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 6 | 10.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 5 | 12 | FORTUNE MASTER Closed strongly B/XB/TT R Maia · J Richards | R Maia | J Richards | 3 | 7.7 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 11 | GOLDEN MISSION B/TT M Chadwick · C W Chang | M Chadwick | C W Chang | 1 | 13.0 | 5 |
| 7 | 10 | U W BROTHER Led early Y L Chung · Y S Tsui | Y L Chung | Y S Tsui | 12 | 5.9 | 5 |
| 8 | 4 | QUORUM Closed strongly B/TT L Currie · R Gibson | L Currie | R Gibson | 14 | 89.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 1 | POLARIS WINNER Closed strongly B H Bentley · A T Millard | H Bentley | A T Millard | 4 | 33.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 9 | RUN RUN GOOD B/TT V Borges · K L Man | V Borges | K L Man | 5 | 22.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 11 | 13 | THE JOLLY VO/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 10 | 34.0 | 11 |
| 12 | 7 | SPLENDID STAR H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 9 | 55.0 | 12-1/4 |
| 13 | 6 | MANY WINS B/TT1 C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 7 | 117.0 | 15 |
| 14 | 3 | AURORA HERO B-/V1/TT S De Sousa · C Fownes | S De Sousa | C Fownes | 11 | 12.0 | 37-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | SUNNY BABY | 27.1% | 3.68 | 3 |
| 2 | 11 | GOLDEN MISSION | 10.1% | 9.87 | 6 |
| 3 | 3 | AURORA HERO | 10.1% | 9.88 | 14 |
| 4 | 8 | EL JEFE | 8.4% | 11.94 | 1 |
| 5 | 5 | CHIU CHOW BROTHER | 8.3% | 12.01 | 2 |
| 6 | 9 | RUN RUN GOOD | 6.8% | 14.76 | 10 |
| 7 | 14 | ZACIAN | 5.7% | 17.61 | 4 |
| 8 | 10 | U W BROTHER | 5.6% | 17.85 | 7 |
| 9 | 13 | THE JOLLY | 4.4% | 22.85 | 11 |
| 10 | 12 | FORTUNE MASTER | 4.1% | 24.61 | 5 |
| 11 | 1 | POLARIS WINNER | 4.0% | 24.84 | 9 |
| 12 | 4 | QUORUM | 2.9% | 34.26 | 8 |
| 13 | 7 | SPLENDID STAR | 1.5% | 68.95 | 12 |
| 14 | 6 | MANY WINS | 1.0% | 99.10 | 13 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 133
PLACE
2 14.5
5 29.5
8 37.5
QUINELLA
5,8 641
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 65.5
2,8 67.5
5,8 189.5
FORECAST
8,5 2,028
TIERCE
8,5,2 6,178
TRIO
2,5,8 528
FIRST 4
2,5,8,14 1,285
QUARTET
8,5,2,14 49,080
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 26.5
A3 —