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Sha Tin · 2022-10-23 · 14:31

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.08.79
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 UNTOLD RICHES H 1.08.79 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · K H Ting 8 10.0 3/4
2 0 REGENCY BO BO B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 9 10.0 3/4
3 0 SUPER SUNNY SING H K C Leung · W Y So 13 10.0 2-1/2
4 0 UNITED WE STAND B/TT Y L Chung · P C Ng 3 6.8 2-1/2
5 0 KING ECCELLENTE H/SR/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte 1 16.0 3-1/2
6 0 GALLANT HERO TT A Hamelin · D J Hall 4 10.0 4-1/2
7 0 SNOWALOT L Currie · D A Hayes 11 14.0 4-3/4
8 0 BEAUTY MISSION CP Z Purton · F C Lor 14 7.9 6
9 0 MACH TEN V Borges · P F Yiu 2 14.0 10
10 0 AUGUST MOON BO-/B2/TT1 M Chadwick · J Richards 7 12.0 11-1/4
11 0 DARING PURSUIT TT1 C Y Ho · C Fownes 10 5.6 17-3/4
12 0 GREAT FOR YOU H T Mo · Y S Tsui 5 87.0 18-1/4
13 0 DUBLIN STAR B/TT C L Chau · K L Man 12 28.0 22-1/2
14 0 GLENEALY GENERALS B/XB R Maia · C H Yip 6 19.0 24-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-23 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. UNTOLD RICHES, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by K H Ting, won by 3/4, with REGENCY BO BO second and SUPER SUNNY SING third. The 5.6 favourite DARING PURSUIT finished 11th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. UNTOLD RICHES—2. REGENCY BO BO+0.75L3. SUPER SUNNY SING+2.5L4. UNITED WE STAND+2.5L5. KING ECCELLENTE+3.5L6. GALLANT HERO+4.5L7. SNOWALOT+4.75L8. BEAUTY MISSION+6L9. MACH TEN+10L10. AUGUST MOON+11.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick BEAUTY MISSION (19.7%) finished 8th — the winner UNTOLD RICHES was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 BEAUTY MISSION 19.7% 5.06 8
2 0 UNITED WE STAND 10.7% 9.35 4
3 0 GLENEALY GENERALS 7.8% 12.84 14
4 0 DARING PURSUIT 7.4% 13.47 11
5 0 AUGUST MOON 7.1% 14.09 10
6 0 SUPER SUNNY SING 6.8% 14.80 3
7 0 SNOWALOT 6.4% 15.55 7
8 0 REGENCY BO BO 6.4% 15.71 2
9 0 GALLANT HERO 6.3% 15.76 6
10 0 KING ECCELLENTE 5.1% 19.79 5
11 0 UNTOLD RICHES 4.4% 22.49 1
12 0 DUBLIN STAR 4.1% 24.55 13
13 0 MACH TEN 4.0% 24.91 9
14 0 GREAT FOR YOU 3.8% 26.55 12
BEAUTY MISSIONUNITED WE STANDGLENEALY GENERALSDARING PURSUITAUGUST MOONSUPER SUNNY SINGSNOWALOTREGENCY BO BOGALLANT HEROKING ECCELLENTEUNTOLD RICHES — wonDUBLIN STARMACH TENGREAT FOR YOU

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 108

PLACE

2 37

3 45

4 30

QUINELLA

3,4 774

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 230.5

2,4 194.5

3,4 272

FORECAST

3,4 1,627

TIERCE

3,4,2 13,543

TRIO

2,3,4 2,576

FIRST 4

2,3,4,14 6,656

QUARTET

3,4,2,14 167,183

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,7,9/2,3,4 80,746

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 —

A3 15.5

3RD DOUBLE

2/3 276

2/4 68