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Sha Tin · 2022-10-23 · 14:01

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-23 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. ONE VOICE, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by F C Lor, won by N, with PERFECT PEACH second and MARADO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.22.01
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 ONE VOICE Closed strongly TT 1.22.01 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · F C Lor 11 2.8 N
2 9 PERFECT PEACH Led early B/H/TT L Hewitson · A S Cruz 13 10.0 N
3 7 MARADO Closed strongly B S De Sousa · P C Ng 2 12.0 1/2
4 14 CASA LEGEND Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 14 7.8 1-1/4
5 5 SUPER RED DRAGON B/TT Z Purton · W Y So 8 4.6 1-3/4
6 4 RED BRICK FIGHTER Closed strongly B K H Chan · D J Hall 1 37.0 1-3/4
7 10 SPLENDID LIVING Closed strongly TT2 M Chadwick · P F Yiu 5 8.0 3
8 1 WIN WIN Closed strongly B C L Chau · T P Yung 10 31.0 3-3/4
9 11 MASTER OF LUCK Closed strongly H/TT H Bentley · K W Lui 7 21.0 4-1/4
10 8 MAXIMIZE HEART B R Maia · C H Yip 12 27.0 4-1/4
11 6 SO YOU TRUST Closed strongly TT A Badel · J Size 9 27.0 6
12 3 ROYAL AGILITY B/TT L Currie · Y S Tsui 6 110.0 6-1/2
13 12 HAPPY FOREVER XB/TT H W Lai · K L Man 3 65.0 10-3/4
14 13 DREAM CATCHER B1 M L Yeung · K H Ting 4 112.0 22-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ONE VOICE2. PERFECT PEACH+0.05L3. MARADO+0.5L4. CASA LEGEND+1.25L5. SUPER RED DRAGON+1.75L6. RED BRICK FIGHTER+1.75L7. SPLENDID LIVING+3L8. WIN WIN+3.75L9. MASTER OF LUCK+4.25L10. MAXIMIZE HEART+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ONE VOICE (30.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 ONE VOICE 30.1% 3.32 1
2 5 SUPER RED DRAGON 14.8% 6.75 5
3 9 PERFECT PEACH 12.8% 7.79 2
4 10 SPLENDID LIVING 7.7% 13.04 7
5 7 MARADO 7.3% 13.66 3
6 14 CASA LEGEND 5.4% 18.46 4
7 8 MAXIMIZE HEART 4.7% 21.26 10
8 4 RED BRICK FIGHTER 4.7% 21.32 6
9 1 WIN WIN 3.5% 28.56 8
10 11 MASTER OF LUCK 2.9% 34.83 9
11 3 ROYAL AGILITY 2.5% 40.57 12
12 6 SO YOU TRUST 1.6% 63.58 11
13 12 HAPPY FOREVER 1.2% 81.92 13
14 13 DREAM CATCHER 0.8% 130.73 14
ONE VOICE — wonSUPER RED DRAGONPERFECT PEACHSPLENDID LIVINGMARADOCASA LEGENDMAXIMIZE HEARTRED BRICK FIGHTERWIN WINMASTER OF LUCKROYAL AGILITYSO YOU TRUSTHAPPY FOREVERDREAM CATCHER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 28

PLACE

2 14

7 32.5

9 30

QUINELLA

2,9 143.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 77.5

2,9 57

7,9 151

FORECAST

2,9 253

TIERCE

2,9,7 1,448

TRIO

2,7,9 412

FIRST 4

2,7,9,14 1,031

QUARTET

2,9,7,14 12,890

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

11/2 371.5

11/9 158

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 17.5

A2