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Sha Tin · 2022-10-23 · 13:31

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course B+2 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.33.99
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 ACCELERANDO Closed strongly TT1 1.33.99 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · J Size 6 17.0 1/2
2 0 OSCAR GLORY Closed strongly V Y L Chung · F C Lor 3 5.6 1/2
3 0 PAKISTAN FRIEND Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · W Y So 5 9.5 3/4
4 0 SHANGHAI DRAGON Led early B C L Chau · T P Yung 2 22.0 1-3/4
5 0 ODE TO JOY Closed strongly H-/SR-/XB-/B2/TT A Hamelin · D J Whyte 4 30.0 2-1/4
6 0 TURQUOISE ALPHA Closed strongly CP/H/XB S De Sousa · P C Ng 7 3.1 2-1/4
7 0 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM H/XB/TT2 L Currie · Y S Tsui 1 59.0 2-3/4
8 0 ROYAL PRIDE Closed strongly V/TT K H Chan · C Fownes 10 32.0 3
9 0 FOREVER GLORIOUS TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 9 22.0 3-3/4
10 0 EZRA B L Hewitson · A T Millard 12 23.0 4-1/4
11 0 RING BELLS Closed strongly B/XB R Maia · R Gibson 14 14.0 4-1/2
12 0 TOYCOON B C Wong · P F Yiu 11 33.0 5-1/4
13 0 KASI FARASI Z Purton · C H Yip 13 6.7 5-3/4
14 0 LIFELINE VISION CP K C Leung · D A Hayes 8 10.0 6-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-23 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. ACCELERANDO, ridden by A Badel and trained by J Size, won by 1/2, with OSCAR GLORY second and PAKISTAN FRIEND third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite TURQUOISE ALPHA finished 6th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ACCELERANDO—2. OSCAR GLORY+0.5L3. PAKISTAN FRIEND+0.75L4. SHANGHAI DRAGON+1.75L5. ODE TO JOY+2.25L6. TURQUOISE ALPHA+2.25L7. ARTHUR'S KINGDOM+2.75L8. ROYAL PRIDE+3L9. FOREVER GLORIOUS+3.75L10. EZRA+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick OSCAR GLORY (18.6%) finished 2nd — the winner ACCELERANDO was rated #13. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 OSCAR GLORY 18.6% 5.37 2
2 0 TURQUOISE ALPHA 13.2% 7.57 6
3 0 KASI FARASI 13.0% 7.71 13
4 0 LIFELINE VISION 9.2% 10.91 14
5 0 PAKISTAN FRIEND 7.7% 12.91 3
6 0 TOYCOON 7.2% 13.98 12
7 0 SHANGHAI DRAGON 6.0% 16.73 4
8 0 ROYAL PRIDE 5.2% 19.13 8
9 0 RING BELLS 4.9% 20.36 11
10 0 EZRA 4.1% 24.68 10
11 0 FOREVER GLORIOUS 3.2% 31.42 9
12 0 ODE TO JOY 3.1% 32.56 5
13 0 ACCELERANDO 2.4% 41.88 1
14 0 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM 2.3% 43.40 7
OSCAR GLORYTURQUOISE ALPHAKASI FARASILIFELINE VISIONPAKISTAN FRIENDTOYCOONSHANGHAI DRAGONROYAL PRIDERING BELLSEZRAFOREVER GLORIOUSODE TO JOYACCELERANDO — wonARTHUR'S KINGDOM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 175.5

PLACE

1 21

11 55.5

12 30.5

QUINELLA

1,11 678.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,11 215.5

1,12 104

11,12 345.5

FORECAST

11,1 1,452

TIERCE

11,1,12 12,856

TRIO

1,11,12 2,324

FIRST 4

1,7,11,12 6,668

QUARTET

11,1,12,7 145,383

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

8/1 177

8/11 1,547

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 27

A1 —