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Sha Tin · 2022-10-23 · 13:31

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-23 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. ACCELERANDO, ridden by A Badel and trained by J Size, won by 1/2, with OSCAR GLORY second and PAKISTAN FRIEND third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite TURQUOISE ALPHA finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.33.99
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 ACCELERANDO Closed strongly TT1 1.33.99 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · J Size 6 17.0 1/2
2 1 OSCAR GLORY Closed strongly V Y L Chung · F C Lor 3 5.6 1/2
3 12 PAKISTAN FRIEND Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · W Y So 5 9.5 3/4
4 7 SHANGHAI DRAGON Led early B C L Chau · T P Yung 2 22.0 1-3/4
5 2 ODE TO JOY Closed strongly H-/SR-/XB-/B2/TT A Hamelin · D J Whyte 4 30.0 2-1/4
6 9 TURQUOISE ALPHA Closed strongly CP/H/XB S De Sousa · P C Ng 7 3.1 2-1/4
7 4 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM H/XB/TT2 L Currie · Y S Tsui 1 59.0 2-3/4
8 5 ROYAL PRIDE Closed strongly V/TT K H Chan · C Fownes 10 32.0 3
9 13 FOREVER GLORIOUS TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 9 22.0 3-3/4
10 6 EZRA B L Hewitson · A T Millard 12 23.0 4-1/4
11 14 RING BELLS Closed strongly B/XB R Maia · R Gibson 14 14.0 4-1/2
12 3 TOYCOON B C Wong · P F Yiu 11 33.0 5-1/4
13 10 KASI FARASI Z Purton · C H Yip 13 6.7 5-3/4
14 8 LIFELINE VISION CP K C Leung · D A Hayes 8 10.0 6-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ACCELERANDO2. OSCAR GLORY+0.5L3. PAKISTAN FRIEND+0.75L4. SHANGHAI DRAGON+1.75L5. ODE TO JOY+2.25L6. TURQUOISE ALPHA+2.25L7. ARTHUR'S KINGDOM+2.75L8. ROYAL PRIDE+3L9. FOREVER GLORIOUS+3.75L10. EZRA+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick OSCAR GLORY (18.6%) finished 2nd — the winner ACCELERANDO was rated #13. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 OSCAR GLORY 18.6% 5.37 2
2 9 TURQUOISE ALPHA 13.2% 7.57 6
3 10 KASI FARASI 13.0% 7.71 13
4 8 LIFELINE VISION 9.2% 10.91 14
5 12 PAKISTAN FRIEND 7.7% 12.91 3
6 3 TOYCOON 7.2% 13.98 12
7 7 SHANGHAI DRAGON 6.0% 16.73 4
8 5 ROYAL PRIDE 5.2% 19.13 8
9 14 RING BELLS 4.9% 20.36 11
10 6 EZRA 4.1% 24.68 10
11 13 FOREVER GLORIOUS 3.2% 31.42 9
12 2 ODE TO JOY 3.1% 32.56 5
13 11 ACCELERANDO 2.4% 41.88 1
14 4 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM 2.3% 43.40 7
OSCAR GLORYTURQUOISE ALPHAKASI FARASILIFELINE VISIONPAKISTAN FRIENDTOYCOONSHANGHAI DRAGONROYAL PRIDERING BELLSEZRAFOREVER GLORIOUSODE TO JOYACCELERANDO — wonARTHUR'S KINGDOM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 175.5

PLACE

1 21

11 55.5

12 30.5

QUINELLA

1,11 678.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,11 215.5

1,12 104

11,12 345.5

FORECAST

11,1 1,452

TIERCE

11,1,12 12,856

TRIO

1,11,12 2,324

FIRST 4

1,7,11,12 6,668

QUARTET

11,1,12,7 145,383

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

8/1 177

8/11 1,547

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 27

A2