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Sha Tin · 2022-10-23 · 16:07

Race 7

Class 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1800m Course B+2 11 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-23 was Class 2 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. RISE BRETHREN, ridden by A Badel and trained by C S Shum, won by SH, with RUNNING GLORY second and CELESTIAL POWER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite MONEY CATCHER finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.46.36
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 RISE BRETHREN Closed strongly TT 1.46.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C S Shum 6 3.9 SH
2 5 RUNNING GLORY Closed strongly V Borges · J Size 9 11.0 SH
3 3 CELESTIAL POWER Closed strongly V M F Poon · F C Lor 2 7.6 1-1/4
4 1 MONEY CATCHER B Z Purton · F C Lor 4 3.0 2-1/4
5 6 CALIFORNIA TEN Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · A S Cruz 11 29.0 2-1/4
6 11 FLYING QUEST Closed strongly B A Hamelin · D J Hall 8 26.0 2-1/4
7 7 CHARITY GO SR H Bentley · C S Shum 7 25.0 3-3/4
8 9 LOOKING GREAT CP/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor 10 10.0 6-1/4
9 2 BOURBONAIRE H L Currie · J Size 5 14.0 6-3/4
10 4 ENJOYING Led early B/TT S De Sousa · W Y So 1 10.0 7-3/4
11 10 SUPERBELLA B/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 3 29.0 9-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RISE BRETHREN2. RUNNING GLORY+0.1L3. CELESTIAL POWER+1.25L4. MONEY CATCHER+2.25L5. CALIFORNIA TEN+2.25L6. FLYING QUEST+2.25L7. CHARITY GO+3.75L8. LOOKING GREAT+6.25L9. BOURBONAIRE+6.75L10. ENJOYING+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick MONEY CATCHER (30.4%) finished 4th — the winner RISE BRETHREN was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 MONEY CATCHER 30.4% 3.28 4
2 8 RISE BRETHREN 11.9% 8.41 1
3 5 RUNNING GLORY 9.9% 10.07 2
4 2 BOURBONAIRE 8.2% 12.27 9
5 4 ENJOYING 7.3% 13.62 10
6 3 CELESTIAL POWER 7.2% 13.97 3
7 9 LOOKING GREAT 6.7% 14.90 8
8 10 SUPERBELLA 6.4% 15.62 11
9 6 CALIFORNIA TEN 5.0% 19.81 5
10 7 CHARITY GO 4.0% 25.14 7
11 11 FLYING QUEST 2.9% 34.04 6
MONEY CATCHERRISE BRETHREN — wonRUNNING GLORYBOURBONAIREENJOYINGCELESTIAL POWERLOOKING GREATSUPERBELLACALIFORNIA TENCHARITY GOFLYING QUEST

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 39

PLACE

3 22.5

5 33

8 13.5

QUINELLA

5,8 247

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 105.5

3,8 51.5

5,8 75.5

FORECAST

8,5 375

TIERCE

8,5,3 1,623

TRIO

3,5,8 463

FIRST 4

1,3,5,8 137

QUARTET

8,5,3,1 3,675

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,3/3,5,8 349,302

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 17

6TH DOUBLE

1/5 133.5

1/8 490.5