Sha Tin · 2022-10-23 · 16:07
Race 7
Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-23 was Class 2 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. RISE BRETHREN, ridden by A Badel and trained by C S Shum, won by SH, with RUNNING GLORY second and CELESTIAL POWER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite MONEY CATCHER finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | RISE BRETHREN Closed strongly TT 1.46.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 6 | 3.9 | SH |
| 2 | 5 | RUNNING GLORY Closed strongly V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 9 | 11.0 | SH |
| 3 | 3 | CELESTIAL POWER Closed strongly V M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 2 | 7.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 1 | MONEY CATCHER B Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 4 | 3.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 6 | CALIFORNIA TEN Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · A S Cruz | L Hewitson | A S Cruz | 11 | 29.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 11 | FLYING QUEST Closed strongly B A Hamelin · D J Hall | A Hamelin | D J Hall | 8 | 26.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 7 | CHARITY GO SR H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 7 | 25.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 9 | LOOKING GREAT CP/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 10 | 10.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 2 | BOURBONAIRE H L Currie · J Size | L Currie | J Size | 5 | 14.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 4 | ENJOYING Led early B/TT S De Sousa · W Y So | S De Sousa | W Y So | 1 | 10.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 11 | 10 | SUPERBELLA B/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 3 | 29.0 | 9-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | MONEY CATCHER | 30.4% | 3.28 | 4 |
| 2 | 8 | RISE BRETHREN | 11.9% | 8.41 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | RUNNING GLORY | 9.9% | 10.07 | 2 |
| 4 | 2 | BOURBONAIRE | 8.2% | 12.27 | 9 |
| 5 | 4 | ENJOYING | 7.3% | 13.62 | 10 |
| 6 | 3 | CELESTIAL POWER | 7.2% | 13.97 | 3 |
| 7 | 9 | LOOKING GREAT | 6.7% | 14.90 | 8 |
| 8 | 10 | SUPERBELLA | 6.4% | 15.62 | 11 |
| 9 | 6 | CALIFORNIA TEN | 5.0% | 19.81 | 5 |
| 10 | 7 | CHARITY GO | 4.0% | 25.14 | 7 |
| 11 | 11 | FLYING QUEST | 2.9% | 34.04 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 39
PLACE
3 22.5
5 33
8 13.5
QUINELLA
5,8 247
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 105.5
3,8 51.5
5,8 75.5
FORECAST
8,5 375
TIERCE
8,5,3 1,623
TRIO
3,5,8 463
FIRST 4
1,3,5,8 137
QUARTET
8,5,3,1 3,675
All pools (3 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,3/3,5,8 349,302
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 17
6TH DOUBLE
1/5 133.5
1/8 490.5