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Sha Tin · 2022-10-23 · 16:07

Race 7

Class 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1800m Course B+2 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.46.36
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 RISE BRETHREN Closed strongly TT 1.46.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C S Shum 6 3.9 SH
2 0 RUNNING GLORY Closed strongly V Borges · J Size 9 11.0 SH
3 0 CELESTIAL POWER Closed strongly V M F Poon · F C Lor 2 7.6 1-1/4
4 0 MONEY CATCHER B Z Purton · F C Lor 4 3.0 2-1/4
5 0 CALIFORNIA TEN Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · A S Cruz 11 29.0 2-1/4
6 0 FLYING QUEST Closed strongly B A Hamelin · D J Hall 8 26.0 2-1/4
7 0 CHARITY GO SR H Bentley · C S Shum 7 25.0 3-3/4
8 0 LOOKING GREAT CP/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor 10 10.0 6-1/4
9 0 BOURBONAIRE H L Currie · J Size 5 14.0 6-3/4
10 0 ENJOYING Led early B/TT S De Sousa · W Y So 1 10.0 7-3/4
11 0 SUPERBELLA B/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 3 29.0 9-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-23 was Class 2 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. RISE BRETHREN, ridden by A Badel and trained by C S Shum, won by SH, with RUNNING GLORY second and CELESTIAL POWER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite MONEY CATCHER finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RISE BRETHREN—2. RUNNING GLORY+0.1L3. CELESTIAL POWER+1.25L4. MONEY CATCHER+2.25L5. CALIFORNIA TEN+2.25L6. FLYING QUEST+2.25L7. CHARITY GO+3.75L8. LOOKING GREAT+6.25L9. BOURBONAIRE+6.75L10. ENJOYING+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick MONEY CATCHER (30.4%) finished 4th — the winner RISE BRETHREN was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 MONEY CATCHER 30.4% 3.28 4
2 0 RISE BRETHREN 11.9% 8.41 1
3 0 RUNNING GLORY 9.9% 10.07 2
4 0 BOURBONAIRE 8.2% 12.27 9
5 0 ENJOYING 7.3% 13.62 10
6 0 CELESTIAL POWER 7.2% 13.97 3
7 0 LOOKING GREAT 6.7% 14.90 8
8 0 SUPERBELLA 6.4% 15.62 11
9 0 CALIFORNIA TEN 5.0% 19.81 5
10 0 CHARITY GO 4.0% 25.14 7
11 0 FLYING QUEST 2.9% 34.04 6
MONEY CATCHERRISE BRETHREN — wonRUNNING GLORYBOURBONAIREENJOYINGCELESTIAL POWERLOOKING GREATSUPERBELLACALIFORNIA TENCHARITY GOFLYING QUEST

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 39

PLACE

3 22.5

5 33

8 13.5

QUINELLA

5,8 247

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 105.5

3,8 51.5

5,8 75.5

FORECAST

8,5 375

TIERCE

8,5,3 1,623

TRIO

3,5,8 463

FIRST 4

1,3,5,8 137

QUARTET

8,5,3,1 3,675

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,3/3,5,8 349,302

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 17

A3 —

6TH DOUBLE

1/5 133.5

1/8 490.5