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Sha Tin · 2022-10-26 · 19:16

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD (AWT) 1800m 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-26 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. JUBILATION, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by L Ho, won by 1-1/4, with BOYS PARTY second and RUN DES RUN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite RUN DES RUN finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.49.23
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 JUBILATION Closed strongly V 1.49.23 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · L Ho 10 31.0 1-1/4
2 9 BOYS PARTY Led early M Chadwick · D J Whyte 12 15.0 1-1/4
3 2 RUN DES RUN Closed strongly TT Z Purton · T P Yung 11 2.8 1-3/4
4 7 SKY GEM Closed strongly A Hamelin · C Fownes 2 10.0 3-1/2
5 14 OH BRAVO Closed strongly TT M F Poon · W Y So 9 12.0 4
6 10 CABLE SPEED H-/CP1/TT L Currie · C W Chang 13 20.0 5
7 12 FORTUNE WINNER Closed strongly V-/H/B1/TT H N Wong · K H Ting 7 62.0 6
8 4 WINNING STEED B/TT A Badel · C H Yip 5 11.0 6-3/4
9 13 SPEED FORCE B C L Chau · C W Chang 3 8.6 8-3/4
10 5 JOLLY FOREVER Closed strongly XB/TT K C Leung · W Y So 14 26.0 12-1/2
11 8 YEE CHEONG BRAVE TT Y L Chung · A T Millard 1 6.6 14-3/4
12 6 GO BALLISTIC SR/TT L Ferraris · R Gibson 6 28.0 16-1/4
13 1 GOLD COMET H-/B2 R Maia · C H Yip 8 25.0 18-1/2
14 3 JOLLY HONOUR B/TT L Hewitson · Y S Tsui 4 15.0 19-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. JUBILATION2. BOYS PARTY+1.25L3. RUN DES RUN+1.75L4. SKY GEM+3.5L5. OH BRAVO+4L6. CABLE SPEED+5L7. FORTUNE WINNER+6L8. WINNING STEED+6.75L9. SPEED FORCE+8.75L10. JOLLY FOREVER+12.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick RUN DES RUN (17.4%) finished 3rd — the winner JUBILATION was rated #12. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 RUN DES RUN 17.4% 5.73 3
2 7 SKY GEM 12.0% 8.36 4
3 4 WINNING STEED 11.5% 8.66 8
4 8 YEE CHEONG BRAVE 7.9% 12.58 11
5 13 SPEED FORCE 6.7% 14.83 9
6 3 JOLLY HONOUR 6.6% 15.06 14
7 5 JOLLY FOREVER 6.5% 15.46 10
8 6 GO BALLISTIC 6.3% 15.85 12
9 9 BOYS PARTY 5.9% 17.01 2
10 14 OH BRAVO 5.6% 17.84 5
11 10 CABLE SPEED 5.0% 19.93 6
12 11 JUBILATION 4.4% 22.96 1
13 1 GOLD COMET 2.5% 40.11 13
14 12 FORTUNE WINNER 1.6% 62.71 7
RUN DES RUNSKY GEMWINNING STEEDYEE CHEONG BRAVESPEED FORCEJOLLY HONOURJOLLY FOREVERGO BALLISTICBOYS PARTYOH BRAVOCABLE SPEEDJUBILATION — wonGOLD COMETFORTUNE WINNER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 314

PLACE

2 14.5

9 44.5

11 83

QUINELLA

9,11 2,257

QUINELLA PLACE

2,9 95.5

2,11 186.5

9,11 671

FORECAST

11,9 7,302

TIERCE

11,9,2 30,936

TRIO

2,9,11 1,805

FIRST 4

2,7,9,11 5,122

QUARTET

11,9,2,7 206,738

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

6/9 186

6/11 4,448.5

3 PICK 1

A3 20

A2

A1