Sha Tin · 2022-10-26 · 20:16

Race 4

Class 2 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 8 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-26 was Class 2 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. KINGS SHIELD, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by N, with APACHE PASS second and SO WE JOY third. The winner led throughout. The 2.6 favourite APACHE PASS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.39.01

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	KINGS SHIELD Wire to wire B 1.39.01 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor	Z Purton	F C Lor	4	135 lb	6.2	N
2	6	APACHE PASS Closed strongly BO/XB K C Leung · P C Ng	K C Leung	P C Ng	1	118 lb	2.6	N
3	7	SO WE JOY Closed strongly H/XB/TT C Y Ho · C W Chang	C Y Ho	C W Chang	2	117 lb	4.8	2-1/4
4	5	SAVAQUIN P1 A Badel · J Size	A Badel	J Size	7	123 lb	15.0	2-1/2
5	3	BERLIN TANGO Closed strongly B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz	Y L Chung	A S Cruz	5	119 lb	7.0	2-1/2
6	4	ALL FOR ST PAUL'S B M Chadwick · F C Lor	M Chadwick	F C Lor	3	123 lb	7.2	2-1/2
7	8	SPIRITED EXPRESS B M F Poon · P F Yiu	M F Poon	P F Yiu	6	113 lb	16.0	2-1/2
8	2	MIGHTY GIANT B H Bentley · P F Yiu	H Bentley	P F Yiu	8	135 lb	17.0	24-1/4
—	9	MAXIMUS L Hewitson · A T Millard	L Hewitson	A T Millard	—	115 lb	—	—

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick ALL FOR ST PAUL'S (18.2%) finished 6th — the winner KINGS SHIELD was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	4	ALL FOR ST PAUL'S	18.2%	5.48	6	7.2
2	1	KINGS SHIELD	16.6%	6.02	1	6.2
3	6	APACHE PASS	14.8%	6.74	2	2.6
4	7	SO WE JOY	14.2%	7.04	3	4.8
5	3	BERLIN TANGO	13.7%	7.29	5	7.0
6	5	SAVAQUIN	11.0%	9.10	4	15.0
7	8	SPIRITED EXPRESS	8.4%	11.89	7	16.0
8	2	MIGHTY GIANT	3.0%	33.34	8	17.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 62.5

PLACE

1 19.5

6 13

7 17.5

QUINELLA

1,6 97.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 41.5

1,7 63

6,7 22.5

FORECAST

1,6 270

TIERCE

1,6,7 916

TRIO

1,6,7 135

FIRST 4

1,5,6,7 318

QUARTET

1,6,7,5 6,534

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 20

A3 —

A1 —

3RD DOUBLE

3/1 1,099

3/6 78.5

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