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Sha Tin · 2022-10-26 · 18:46

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-26 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. DIAMOND SOARS, ridden by C L Chau and trained by P F Yiu, won by N, with G ONE EXCELLENT second and THE MULTIPLIER third. The 4.2 favourite SMART FOLKS finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.09.66
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 DIAMOND SOARS H/TT 1.09.66 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · P F Yiu 10 8.0 N
2 8 G ONE EXCELLENT B-/P1/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 8 7.7 N
3 5 THE MULTIPLIER B/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes 11 9.7 3/4
4 3 WINS ALL B1/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 1 6.6 3-1/4
5 1 JAZZ STEED B/TT K H Chan · C Fownes 2 7.1 3-3/4
6 7 BUDDY SPIRIT B A Badel · C H Yip 5 35.0 5-1/2
7 4 SMART FOLKS B A Hamelin · C W Chang 3 4.2 7
8 2 HAPPY MATADOR B/XB/TT R Maia · R Gibson 7 48.0 7-1/2
9 12 SURE WINNER B K C Leung · Y S Tsui 4 30.0 8-1/4
10 10 TSUEN WAN GLORY H1/TT H W Lai · K L Man 6 20.0 8-1/2
11 9 CALL ME LU PC1/TT Z Purton · J Richards 12 6.2 10-1/2
12 11 NOBODY KNOWS CP-/V1 H T Mo · L Ho 9 29.0 11-3/4
0 DASHING GENIUS L Ferraris · A S Cruz

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DIAMOND SOARS2. G ONE EXCELLENT+0.05L3. THE MULTIPLIER+0.75L4. WINS ALL+3.25L5. JAZZ STEED+3.75L6. BUDDY SPIRIT+5.5L7. SMART FOLKS+7L8. HAPPY MATADOR+7.5L9. SURE WINNER+8.25L10. TSUEN WAN GLORY+8.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick WINS ALL (22.2%) finished 4th — the winner DIAMOND SOARS was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 WINS ALL 22.2% 4.50 4
2 1 JAZZ STEED 12.6% 7.97 5
3 6 DIAMOND SOARS 11.7% 8.57 1
4 8 G ONE EXCELLENT 11.2% 8.91 2
5 4 SMART FOLKS 10.0% 10.01 7
6 5 THE MULTIPLIER 8.7% 11.50 3
7 9 CALL ME LU 7.9% 12.71 11
8 7 BUDDY SPIRIT 5.4% 18.69 6
9 12 SURE WINNER 4.3% 23.34 9
10 2 HAPPY MATADOR 2.2% 45.33 8
11 11 NOBODY KNOWS 2.0% 49.70 12
12 10 TSUEN WAN GLORY 1.9% 51.62 10
WINS ALLJAZZ STEEDDIAMOND SOARS — wonG ONE EXCELLENTSMART FOLKSTHE MULTIPLIERCALL ME LUBUDDY SPIRITSURE WINNERHAPPY MATADORNOBODY KNOWSTSUEN WAN GLORY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 80.5

PLACE

5 29

6 29.5

8 25.5

QUINELLA

6,8 266

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 150

5,8 142

6,8 98.5

FORECAST

6,8 631

TIERCE

6,8,5 4,151

TRIO

5,6,8 1,006

FIRST 4

3,5,6,8 1,267

QUARTET

6,8,5,3 29,856

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 24

A2

A1