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Sha Tin · 2022-10-26 · 22:53

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 13 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-26 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. CHANCHENG PRINCE, ridden by R Maia and trained by K W Lui, won by 3/4, with VIVA HUNTER second and TRUE LEGEND third. The winner led throughout. The 2.8 favourite HANDSOME TWELVE finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.37.33
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 CHANCHENG PRINCE Wire to wire XB/TT 1.37.33 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Maia · K W Lui 5 4.0 3/4
2 11 VIVA HUNTER Closed strongly TT2 M Chadwick · K L Man 3 9.7 3/4
3 10 TRUE LEGEND B Y L Chung · F C Lor 1 10.0 1
4 4 ROYAL BOMB Closed strongly CP-/V1/TT M L Yeung · C Fownes 6 13.0 1-1/2
5 6 HANDSOME TWELVE Closed strongly Z Purton · T P Yung 7 2.8 3
6 8 AMAZING TEENS H/P/TT A Badel · J Size 2 10.0 5-1/2
7 12 HELENE WISDOM STAR Closed strongly CP-/H/B2/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 8 22.0 8-3/4
8 7 LUCKY FUN V-/TT C L Chau · L Ho 11 61.0 8-3/4
9 3 LIGHTNING BOLT Closed strongly C Y Ho · C S Shum 13 11.0 10-1/2
10 9 DR WINNING P1/TT V Borges · J Size 12 59.0 10-1/2
11 5 ULTRA EXPRESS B/TT L Hewitson · A T Millard 4 26.0 12-3/4
12 2 PRIME MINISTER Closed strongly TT- K C Leung · P F Yiu 10 40.0 16-1/4
13 13 ROBOT WARRIOR B- H N Wong · P F Yiu 9 84.0 17-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHANCHENG PRINCE2. VIVA HUNTER+0.75L3. TRUE LEGEND+1L4. ROYAL BOMB+1.5L5. HANDSOME TWELVE+3L6. AMAZING TEENS+5.5L7. HELENE WISDOM STAR+8.75L8. LUCKY FUN+8.75L9. LIGHTNING BOLT+10.5L10. DR WINNING+10.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick HANDSOME TWELVE (27.1%) finished 5th — the winner CHANCHENG PRINCE was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 HANDSOME TWELVE 27.1% 3.69 5
2 8 AMAZING TEENS 12.9% 7.75 6
3 10 TRUE LEGEND 9.5% 10.56 3
4 11 VIVA HUNTER 9.4% 10.66 2
5 3 LIGHTNING BOLT 7.7% 12.98 9
6 12 HELENE WISDOM STAR 6.7% 14.94 7
7 1 CHANCHENG PRINCE 5.9% 17.02 1
8 5 ULTRA EXPRESS 4.8% 20.84 11
9 2 PRIME MINISTER 4.3% 23.25 12
10 7 LUCKY FUN 3.7% 26.77 8
11 4 ROYAL BOMB 3.2% 31.56 4
12 9 DR WINNING 2.7% 37.27 10
13 13 ROBOT WARRIOR 2.2% 45.45 13
HANDSOME TWELVEAMAZING TEENSTRUE LEGENDVIVA HUNTERLIGHTNING BOLTHELENE WISDOM STARCHANCHENG PRINCE — wonULTRA EXPRESSPRIME MINISTERLUCKY FUNROYAL BOMBDR WINNINGROBOT WARRIOR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 40

PLACE

1 17

10 32.5

11 24.5

QUINELLA

1,11 257

QUINELLA PLACE

1,10 73

1,11 79.5

10,11 171

FORECAST

1,11 347

TIERCE

1,11,10 3,293

TRIO

1,10,11 749

FIRST 4

1,4,10,11 2,549

QUARTET

1,11,10,4 40,493

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 16.5

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,12/1,10,11 71,609

8TH DOUBLE

2/1 103

2/11 81.5

SIX UP

1/3/2,7/6/2/1 5,228

1,6/3,9/2,4,7/6,11/2,12/1,11 419

1 [Z Purton]

9 [P C Ng]

TREBLE

6/2/1 252

6/2/11 243