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Sha Tin · 2022-10-26 · 21:18

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 11 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-26 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. TRADER, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by P C Ng, won by 1-1/2, with YOUTHFUL DEAL second and YELLOWFIN third. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.90
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 TRADER CP/TT 1.08.90 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · P C Ng 1 2.8 1-1/2
2 4 YOUTHFUL DEAL SR1/TT Z Purton · F C Lor 2 4.1 1-1/2
3 5 YELLOWFIN C Y Ho · K W Lui 7 5.5 3-3/4
4 12 MIRACLES B M Chadwick · K L Man 9 10.0 4-1/2
5 11 JOYFUL GENIUS L Ferraris · D J Hall 12 10.0 5-3/4
6 9 SON PAK FU BO-/B1 C L Chau · T P Yung 8 20.0 6
7 3 PROSECCO H/SR K C Leung · R Gibson 6 23.0 9-1/4
8 10 DOUBLE SHOW CP-/V1/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 11 10.0 10
9 1 PROUD DRAGON B K H Chan · C Fownes 3 25.0 10
10 8 GOLDEN FAIRY B/XB A Hamelin · A T Millard 5 114.0 11-1/2
11 6 HOODABUTTA M L Yeung · D A Hayes 4 81.0 15
7 BELL OF HAPPINESS H N Wong · C W Chang

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TRADER2. YOUTHFUL DEAL+1.5L3. YELLOWFIN+3.75L4. MIRACLES+4.5L5. JOYFUL GENIUS+5.75L6. SON PAK FU+6L7. PROSECCO+9.25L8. DOUBLE SHOW+10L9. PROUD DRAGON+10L10. GOLDEN FAIRY+11.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick YOUTHFUL DEAL (27.3%) finished 2nd — the winner TRADER was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 YOUTHFUL DEAL 27.3% 3.66 2
2 5 YELLOWFIN 20.8% 4.80 3
3 2 TRADER 11.8% 8.47 1
4 11 JOYFUL GENIUS 10.6% 9.41 5
5 1 PROUD DRAGON 8.5% 11.77 9
6 10 DOUBLE SHOW 6.6% 15.04 8
7 12 MIRACLES 5.0% 19.87 4
8 3 PROSECCO 3.9% 25.64 7
9 9 SON PAK FU 3.4% 29.40 6
10 6 HOODABUTTA 1.1% 89.17 11
11 8 GOLDEN FAIRY 0.8% 118.03 10
YOUTHFUL DEALYELLOWFINTRADER — wonJOYFUL GENIUSPROUD DRAGONDOUBLE SHOWMIRACLESPROSECCOSON PAK FUHOODABUTTAGOLDEN FAIRY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 28

PLACE

2 13

4 17.5

5 18.5

QUINELLA

2,4 63.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 27.5

2,5 33.5

4,5 40

FORECAST

2,4 144

TIERCE

2,4,5 339

TRIO

2,4,5 67

FIRST 4

2,4,5,12 118

QUARTET

2,4,5,12 1,900

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 18.5

5TH DOUBLE

3/2,7 125.5

3/4 22