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Sha Tin · 2022-10-26 · 20:46

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-26 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. FIERY DIAMOND, ridden by Z Purton and trained by T P Yung, won by NOSE, with STAND UP second and COLOURFUL PRINCE third. Victory came as the 3.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.94
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 FIERY DIAMOND 1.08.94 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · T P Yung 1 3.2 NOSE
2 9 STAND UP M F Poon · F C Lor 5 8.4 NOSE
3 12 COLOURFUL PRINCE H/SR/TT Y L Chung · D J Whyte 8 5.9 4-1/4
4 11 TOUCH FAITH P2 A Badel · J Size 6 19.0 5
5 10 LUCKY RUBY B/TT M Chadwick · K L Man 7 4.8 5-1/4
6 2 KILLER INSTINCT B1/TT K H Chan · C Fownes 3 9.4 6-1/2
7 4 STARRY NIGHT B/TT1 H Bentley · D A Hayes 10 12.0 7-1/2
8 5 SUPER JOY P1 H T Mo · L Ho 9 45.0 8-1/4
9 6 SPEEDSTAR B L Currie · D J Hall 4 70.0 9-1/4
10 1 BRILLIANT LIFE R Maia · C H Yip 2 15.0 10-1/4
11 7 COLOURFUL BARON B/TT V Borges · R Gibson 12 91.0 10-1/2
12 8 DRAGON KINGDOM CP1 K C Leung · Y S Tsui 11 18.0 10-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FIERY DIAMOND2. STAND UP+0.05L3. COLOURFUL PRINCE+4.25L4. TOUCH FAITH+5L5. LUCKY RUBY+5.25L6. KILLER INSTINCT+6.5L7. STARRY NIGHT+7.5L8. SUPER JOY+8.25L9. SPEEDSTAR+9.25L10. BRILLIANT LIFE+10.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick FIERY DIAMOND (47.2%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 FIERY DIAMOND 47.2% 2.12 1
2 9 STAND UP 9.4% 10.65 2
3 4 STARRY NIGHT 8.0% 12.57 7
4 11 TOUCH FAITH 7.1% 14.08 4
5 12 COLOURFUL PRINCE 6.2% 16.07 3
6 10 LUCKY RUBY 5.8% 17.19 5
7 2 KILLER INSTINCT 5.5% 18.26 6
8 5 SUPER JOY 3.2% 31.42 8
9 8 DRAGON KINGDOM 2.7% 37.19 12
10 1 BRILLIANT LIFE 2.4% 41.65 10
11 6 SPEEDSTAR 1.6% 61.24 9
12 7 COLOURFUL BARON 1.0% 102.84 11
FIERY DIAMOND — wonSTAND UPSTARRY NIGHTTOUCH FAITHCOLOURFUL PRINCELUCKY RUBYKILLER INSTINCTSUPER JOYDRAGON KINGDOMBRILLIANT LIFESPEEDSTARCOLOURFUL BARON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 32

PLACE

3 15

9 25.5

12 23.5

QUINELLA

3,9 134

QUINELLA PLACE

3,9 50.5

3,12 46.5

9,12 101.5

FORECAST

3,9 231

TIERCE

3,9,12 1,224

TRIO

3,9,12 314

FIRST 4

3,9,11,12 950

QUARTET

3,9,12,11 12,862

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,6,7/3,9,12 3,415

3 PICK 1

A1 19

A3

A2

4TH DOUBLE

1/3 203

1/9 86.5