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Sha Tin · 2022-10-26 · 21:46

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.38.95
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 YES WE CAN Closed strongly B/TT 1.38.95 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · T P Yung 4 2.2 2-1/4
2 0 LADY FIRST Closed strongly CP/XB/TT K C Leung · C W Chang 1 24.0 2-1/4
3 0 GREEN LASER B/TT C Y Ho · W Y So 7 11.0 3-1/4
4 0 TURBO POWER Closed strongly P1 A Hamelin · K W Lui 6 6.3 5-1/4
5 0 SURREALISM Closed strongly B M Chadwick · R Gibson 10 46.0 5-1/4
6 0 LUCKY VICTOR B/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 11 21.0 6
7 0 VIVA A LA Closed strongly H/P/TT C L Chau · L Ho 13 37.0 7
8 0 MAGIC SUPREME B/TT R Maia · K L Man 2 10.0 7-1/2
9 0 INFINITE POWER Led early CP Y L Chung · P C Ng 3 14.0 9
10 0 SUPER BUDDY Closed strongly B L Currie · Y S Tsui 8 36.0 9-1/4
12 0 MISSION BRAVO H/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 12 11.0 15-1/2
13 0 MURRAY'S PARTNERS V A Badel · C H Yip 9 21.0 29
— 0 SURE JOYFUL P- L Hewitson · P F Yiu — 19.0 12-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-26 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. YES WE CAN, ridden by Z Purton and trained by T P Yung, won by 2-1/4, with LADY FIRST second and GREEN LASER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.2 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. YES WE CAN—2. LADY FIRST+2.25L3. GREEN LASER+3.25L4. TURBO POWER+5.25L5. SURREALISM+5.25L6. LUCKY VICTOR+6L7. VIVA A LA+7L8. MAGIC SUPREME+7.5L9. INFINITE POWER+9L10. SUPER BUDDY+9.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick YES WE CAN (27.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 YES WE CAN 27.5% 3.64 1
2 0 MURRAY'S PARTNERS 9.8% 10.24 13
3 0 MISSION BRAVO 9.2% 10.81 12
4 0 TURBO POWER 8.3% 12.04 4
5 0 LUCKY VICTOR 8.2% 12.16 6
6 0 SURE JOYFUL 6.5% 15.40 —
7 0 SUPER BUDDY 6.1% 16.34 10
8 0 MAGIC SUPREME 5.9% 16.82 8
9 0 LADY FIRST 5.6% 17.77 2
10 0 INFINITE POWER 4.3% 23.35 9
11 0 GREEN LASER 4.2% 23.83 3
12 0 VIVA A LA 2.2% 44.86 7
13 0 SURREALISM 2.1% 47.24 5
YES WE CAN — wonMURRAY'S PARTNERSMISSION BRAVOTURBO POWERLUCKY VICTORSURE JOYFULSUPER BUDDYMAGIC SUPREMELADY FIRSTINFINITE POWERGREEN LASERVIVA A LASURREALISM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 22

PLACE

6 13.5

10 30

11 47

QUINELLA

6,11 241.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,10 44

6,11 89.5

10,11 227

FORECAST

6,11 407

TIERCE

6,11,10 2,037

TRIO

6,10,11 525

FIRST 4

5,6,10,11 606

QUARTET

6,11,10,5 10,665

All pools (5 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,5,7/6,10,11 5,550

3 PICK 1

A1 16.5

A3 —

A2 —

6TH DOUBLE

2,7/6 85.5

2,7/11 145

TRIPLE TRIO

3,9,12/2,4,5,7/6,10,11 120,478

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,9,12/2,4,5,7/Any Combination 267