Sha Tin · 2022-10-26 · 19:47
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2022-10-26 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. HAPPY FAT CAT, ridden by H N Wong and trained by P C Ng, won by 1-1/2, with ACA POWER second and HANDSOME GUYS third. The 5.3 favourite COMPULSORY finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | HAPPY FAT CAT PC 1.09.04 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H N Wong · P C Ng | H N Wong | P C Ng | 12 | 16.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 7 | ACA POWER H L Currie · D J Hall | L Currie | D J Hall | 2 | 13.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 9 | HANDSOME GUYS H-/E1/TT V Borges · C Fownes | V Borges | C Fownes | 10 | 7.9 | 2 |
| 4 | 12 | RAGING BLAZE P2/TT A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 3 | 7.4 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 2 | ASIAN ONE XB/PC1/TT Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 5 | 7.4 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 4 | THETA HEDGE B/H/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 6 | 8.9 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 1 | COMPULSORY B/TT Y L Chung · A T Millard | Y L Chung | A T Millard | 1 | 5.3 | 8 |
| 8 | 11 | REGENCY GEM V/TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 8 | 14.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 9 | 10 | ALLOY KING CP A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 7 | 31.0 | 11 |
| 10 | 6 | EUROMISSILE B/H/XB M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 4 | 13.0 | 13 |
| 11 | 8 | STEEL WIN V/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 11 | 7.1 | 13-1/2 |
| 12 | 5 | COOLCELEB B/TT H Bentley · T P Yung | H Bentley | T P Yung | 9 | 15.0 | 14-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | ASIAN ONE | 20.3% | 4.94 | 5 |
| 2 | 12 | RAGING BLAZE | 17.2% | 5.82 | 4 |
| 3 | 4 | THETA HEDGE | 11.1% | 9.01 | 6 |
| 4 | 6 | EUROMISSILE | 10.9% | 9.18 | 10 |
| 5 | 11 | REGENCY GEM | 6.7% | 15.02 | 8 |
| 6 | 7 | ACA POWER | 6.7% | 15.04 | 2 |
| 7 | 10 | ALLOY KING | 5.1% | 19.60 | 9 |
| 8 | 9 | HANDSOME GUYS | 4.9% | 20.25 | 3 |
| 9 | 1 | COMPULSORY | 4.9% | 20.51 | 7 |
| 10 | 3 | HAPPY FAT CAT | 4.2% | 23.98 | 1 |
| 11 | 8 | STEEL WIN | 4.1% | 24.36 | 11 |
| 12 | 5 | COOLCELEB | 4.1% | 24.53 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 165
PLACE
3 49
7 40.5
9 29
QUINELLA
3,7 1,335
QUINELLA PLACE
3,7 396
3,9 244.5
7,9 199.5
FORECAST
3,7 2,550
TIERCE
3,7,9 26,800
TRIO
3,7,9 4,077
FIRST 4
3,7,9,12 8,916
QUARTET
3,7,9,12 355,386
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
11/3 6,361.5
11/7 834.5
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 37