Happy Valley · 2022-11-16 · 19:16
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2022-11-16 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. JAZZ STEED, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C Fownes, won by N, with UNIVERSAL CROWN second and LITTLE PLAYER third. The 3.4 favourite SHENRON finished 11th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | JAZZ STEED B/TT 1.10.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 2 | 5.4 | N |
| 2 | 2 | UNIVERSAL CROWN B L Ferraris · D J Whyte | L Ferraris | D J Whyte | 1 | 10.0 | N |
| 3 | 11 | LITTLE PLAYER B/XB/TT M Chadwick · J Richards | M Chadwick | J Richards | 4 | 8.4 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 12 | TRAVEL GLORY B2 J McNeil · Y S Tsui | J McNeil | Y S Tsui | 11 | 18.0 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 4 | ENCORE TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 8 | 28.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 8 | SPLIT OF A SECOND CP S De Sousa · W Y So | S De Sousa | W Y So | 5 | 12.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 7 | THE GOOD DEAL H/TT V Borges · C W Chang | V Borges | C W Chang | 3 | 11.0 | 2 |
| 8 | 5 | SUPER KINGDOM B H Bentley · A T Millard | H Bentley | A T Millard | 10 | 83.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 9 | 10 | ALLOY KING CP-/V1 M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 12 | 46.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 3 | GLORIFIED FIRE A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 9 | 19.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 9 | SHENRON P-/H/XB/PC1 R Maia · P C Ng | R Maia | P C Ng | 7 | 3.4 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 6 | FORTUNE HERO B/TT L Hewitson · R Gibson | L Hewitson | R Gibson | 6 | 5.8 | 8-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | JAZZ STEED | 17.4% | 5.76 | 1 |
| 2 | 9 | SHENRON | 15.3% | 6.52 | 11 |
| 3 | 8 | SPLIT OF A SECOND | 13.3% | 7.52 | 6 |
| 4 | 7 | THE GOOD DEAL | 10.0% | 10.04 | 7 |
| 5 | 3 | GLORIFIED FIRE | 9.0% | 11.12 | 10 |
| 6 | 11 | LITTLE PLAYER | 8.0% | 12.55 | 3 |
| 7 | 12 | TRAVEL GLORY | 7.4% | 13.43 | 4 |
| 8 | 6 | FORTUNE HERO | 5.7% | 17.48 | 12 |
| 9 | 4 | ENCORE | 5.0% | 20.14 | 5 |
| 10 | 2 | UNIVERSAL CROWN | 4.2% | 23.96 | 2 |
| 11 | 10 | ALLOY KING | 2.9% | 35.04 | 9 |
| 12 | 5 | SUPER KINGDOM | 1.9% | 52.19 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 54
PLACE
1 19
2 31.5
11 25
QUINELLA
1,2 213
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 70
1,11 77
2,11 143.5
FORECAST
1,2 278
TIERCE
1,2,11 3,390
TRIO
1,2,11 664
FIRST 4
1,2,11,12 2,983
QUARTET
1,2,11,12 45,137
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
3/1 344.5
3/2 124
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 21