Happy Valley · 2022-11-16 · 20:16
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | CIRCUIT ELITE Wire to wire B-/TT 1.49.01 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 1 | 4.4 | N |
| 2 | 0 | CHATER PINS Closed strongly SR M Chadwick · D A Hayes | M Chadwick | D A Hayes | 6 | 6.6 | N |
| 3 | 0 | PERFECT TO GREAT Closed strongly SR/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 11 | 8.2 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 0 | SMILING TIME Closed strongly V/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting | L Ferraris | K H Ting | 8 | 7.0 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | RED ELYSEES B/TT M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 2 | 20.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 0 | DARCI JOY B/TT S De Sousa · P F Yiu | S De Sousa | P F Yiu | 3 | 4.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | WONDER YEARS Closed strongly B/XB/TT A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 4 | 9.3 | 2 |
| 8 | 0 | EZRA B R Maia · A T Millard | R Maia | A T Millard | 5 | 19.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 0 | MANAGEMENT FOLKS B J McNeil · D J Hall | J McNeil | D J Hall | 9 | 49.0 | 7 |
| 10 | 0 | PERFECT MARYKNOLL B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 10 | 31.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 11 | 0 | MURRAY'S PARTNERS Closed strongly V C Wong · C H Yip | C Wong | C H Yip | 12 | 27.0 | 9 |
| 12 | 0 | RED IMPACT V/XB/TT L Hewitson · J Richards | L Hewitson | J Richards | 7 | 14.0 | 9-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2022-11-16 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. CIRCUIT ELITE, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with CHATER PINS second and PERFECT TO GREAT third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 4.4 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | DARCI JOY | 20.9% | 4.79 | 6 |
| 2 | 0 | CIRCUIT ELITE | 15.8% | 6.34 | 1 |
| 3 | 0 | SMILING TIME | 10.8% | 9.24 | 4 |
| 4 | 0 | WONDER YEARS | 10.5% | 9.52 | 7 |
| 5 | 0 | CHATER PINS | 8.8% | 11.40 | 2 |
| 6 | 0 | PERFECT TO GREAT | 6.5% | 15.31 | 3 |
| 7 | 0 | RED ELYSEES | 6.2% | 16.13 | 5 |
| 8 | 0 | RED IMPACT | 5.3% | 18.72 | 12 |
| 9 | 0 | EZRA | 5.2% | 19.29 | 8 |
| 10 | 0 | PERFECT MARYKNOLL | 4.8% | 20.97 | 10 |
| 11 | 0 | MURRAY'S PARTNERS | 3.2% | 31.30 | 11 |
| 12 | 0 | MANAGEMENT FOLKS | 2.0% | 49.52 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 44
PLACE
7 19
9 18
12 29.5
QUINELLA
7,9 206
QUINELLA PLACE
7,9 72
7,12 74
9,12 83.5
FORECAST
7,9 361
TIERCE
7,9,12 2,344
TRIO
7,9,12 454
FIRST 4
3,7,9,12 632
QUARTET
7,9,12,3 13,116
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 25
A3 —
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE
3/7 285
3/9 73