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Happy Valley · 2022-11-16 · 21:46

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2022-11-16 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. EXCELLENT PEERS, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by F C Lor, won by 3/4, with NAMJONG SINGS second and HAPPY SHARING third. The 2.8 favourite BEAUTY GLORY finished 10th.

Result

Official · 1.09.51
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 EXCELLENT PEERS H/XB 1.09.51 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · F C Lor 7 4.4 3/4
2 3 NAMJONG SINGS B C Y Ho · C S Shum 4 19.0 3/4
3 6 HAPPY SHARING TT L Ferraris · P C Ng 2 4.7 1
4 5 RED LION A Badel · J Size 12 46.0 1-1/2
5 10 TELECOM SPEED H N Wong · Y S Tsui 3 127.0 1-1/2
6 9 STORMTROUPER E/TT H Bentley · C H Yip 8 33.0 1-3/4
7 7 OUR LUCKY GLORY SR L Hewitson · D J Whyte 10 10.0 2-1/2
8 11 COMPASSION SPIRIT B M L Yeung · K L Man 5 21.0 3
9 8 MASTER TORNADO K C Leung · W Y So 11 79.0 4-3/4
10 1 BEAUTY GLORY H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 1 2.8 4-3/4
11 2 ATULLIBIGEAL H/XB L Currie · D J Hall 6 7.3 5
12 12 SUPER DOBBIN B J McNeil · A T Millard 9 57.0 7-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. EXCELLENT PEERS2. NAMJONG SINGS+0.75L3. HAPPY SHARING+1L4. RED LION+1.5L5. TELECOM SPEED+1.5L6. STORMTROUPER+1.75L7. OUR LUCKY GLORY+2.5L8. COMPASSION SPIRIT+3L9. MASTER TORNADO+4.75L10. BEAUTY GLORY+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick BEAUTY GLORY (17.7%) finished 10th — the winner EXCELLENT PEERS was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 BEAUTY GLORY 17.7% 5.66 10
2 6 HAPPY SHARING 17.0% 5.87 3
3 4 EXCELLENT PEERS 16.6% 6.02 1
4 2 ATULLIBIGEAL 9.9% 10.13 11
5 7 OUR LUCKY GLORY 8.4% 11.95 7
6 3 NAMJONG SINGS 7.3% 13.62 2
7 11 COMPASSION SPIRIT 7.0% 14.35 8
8 5 RED LION 6.0% 16.73 4
9 9 STORMTROUPER 3.6% 27.93 6
10 12 SUPER DOBBIN 3.2% 30.95 12
11 8 MASTER TORNADO 1.8% 55.63 9
12 10 TELECOM SPEED 1.6% 64.50 5
BEAUTY GLORYHAPPY SHARINGEXCELLENT PEERS — wonATULLIBIGEALOUR LUCKY GLORYNAMJONG SINGSCOMPASSION SPIRITRED LIONSTORMTROUPERSUPER DOBBINMASTER TORNADOTELECOM SPEED

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 44.5

PLACE

3 42

4 16

6 18

QUINELLA

3,4 285

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 77.5

3,6 121

4,6 43.5

FORECAST

4,3 377

TIERCE

4,3,6 2,046

TRIO

3,4,6 515

FIRST 4

3,4,5,6 3,467

QUARTET

4,3,6,5 51,580

All pools (5 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,7/3,4,6 6,452

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 20.5

6TH DOUBLE

7/3 204

7/4 209

TRIPLE TRIO

4,5,11/2,3,7/3,4,6 2,430,807

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

4,5,11/2,3,7/Any Combination 9,437