Happy Valley · 2022-11-16 · 20:47
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2022-11-16 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SAVVY CHIC, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-1/4, with COLONEL second and HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE third. The 2.0 favourite GOLD GOLD BABY finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SAVVY CHIC TT 1.09.62 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · F C Lor | S De Sousa | F C Lor | 6 | 14.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 11 | COLONEL J McNeil · P F Yiu | J McNeil | P F Yiu | 9 | 10.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 4 | HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 1 | 4.9 | 2 |
| 4 | 2 | GOLD GOLD BABY TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 4 | 2.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 8 | NORDIC COMBINED B L Hewitson · R Gibson | L Hewitson | R Gibson | 7 | 21.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 10 | TO INFINITY B1/TT1 C Wong · J Richards | C Wong | J Richards | 3 | 61.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 7 | HARDLY SWEARS CP/TT H Bentley · P C Ng | H Bentley | P C Ng | 11 | 10.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 12 | OUR CREED V M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 12 | 43.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 1 | H Z TOURBILLON TT M Chadwick · C S Shum | M Chadwick | C S Shum | 10 | 8.7 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 6 | SUPER MAGIC L Currie · D A Hayes | L Currie | D A Hayes | 5 | 49.0 | 5 |
| 11 | 9 | SIX BEST FRIENDS B/TT H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 2 | 64.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 12 | 3 | FAMILY STRENGTH B1/TT1 L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 8 | 104.0 | 11-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | GOLD GOLD BABY | 31.8% | 3.14 | 4 |
| 2 | 4 | HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE | 12.8% | 7.81 | 3 |
| 3 | 1 | H Z TOURBILLON | 12.6% | 7.92 | 9 |
| 4 | 11 | COLONEL | 7.2% | 13.94 | 2 |
| 5 | 5 | SAVVY CHIC | 7.0% | 14.22 | 1 |
| 6 | 7 | HARDLY SWEARS | 6.8% | 14.61 | 7 |
| 7 | 3 | FAMILY STRENGTH | 6.1% | 16.48 | 12 |
| 8 | 6 | SUPER MAGIC | 4.7% | 21.08 | 10 |
| 9 | 8 | NORDIC COMBINED | 4.3% | 23.33 | 5 |
| 10 | 12 | OUR CREED | 3.6% | 27.94 | 8 |
| 11 | 9 | SIX BEST FRIENDS | 1.7% | 59.28 | 11 |
| 12 | 10 | TO INFINITY | 1.4% | 73.65 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 147
PLACE
4 15.5
5 37.5
11 30
QUINELLA
5,11 641.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 91.5
4,11 83.5
5,11 182.5
FORECAST
5,11 1,710
TIERCE
5,11,4 8,245
TRIO
4,5,11 856
FIRST 4
2,4,5,11 574
QUARTET
5,11,4,2 29,115
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
7,9,12/4,5,11 122,008
3 PICK 1
A2 43.5
A3 —
A1 —
4TH DOUBLE
7/5 824
7/11 128