Happy Valley · 2022-11-16 · 21:17
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2022-11-16 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. GOLD MARQUIS, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by C Fownes, won by 3/4, with GALLANT WAKING second and ADIOS third. The 3.6 favourite ADIOS finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | GOLD MARQUIS B1/TT 1.08.80 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · C Fownes | M Chadwick | C Fownes | 5 | 6.1 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 3 | GALLANT WAKING XB C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 12 | 4.6 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 2 | ADIOS V M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 10 | 3.6 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 9 | MR VALIANT XB S De Sousa · A T Millard | S De Sousa | A T Millard | 11 | 23.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 10 | WIND N GRASS B1/XB1/TT L Ferraris · J Richards | L Ferraris | J Richards | 2 | 16.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 5 | CALIFORNIA CONCORD B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 1 | 5.8 | 4 |
| 7 | 4 | ELON E/P V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 7 | 26.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 8 | QUADRUPLE DOUBLE TT K H Chan · D J Hall | K H Chan | D J Hall | 4 | 24.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 1 | VALIANT ELEGANCE B/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 8 | 30.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 6 | DECISIVE TWELVE TT K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 6 | 14.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 12 | SUPER MISSION H/TT A Badel · P F Yiu | A Badel | P F Yiu | 9 | 11.0 | 15-1/2 |
| 12 | 11 | DRAGON DELIGHT M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 3 | 61.0 | 19 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | ADIOS | 26.1% | 3.83 | 3 |
| 2 | 3 | GALLANT WAKING | 17.0% | 5.87 | 2 |
| 3 | 12 | SUPER MISSION | 9.7% | 10.26 | 11 |
| 4 | 8 | QUADRUPLE DOUBLE | 9.2% | 10.81 | 8 |
| 5 | 10 | WIND N GRASS | 6.9% | 14.58 | 5 |
| 6 | 6 | DECISIVE TWELVE | 6.6% | 15.22 | 10 |
| 7 | 5 | CALIFORNIA CONCORD | 5.8% | 17.14 | 6 |
| 8 | 7 | GOLD MARQUIS | 5.4% | 18.65 | 1 |
| 9 | 1 | VALIANT ELEGANCE | 4.8% | 20.86 | 9 |
| 10 | 9 | MR VALIANT | 4.7% | 21.31 | 4 |
| 11 | 11 | DRAGON DELIGHT | 1.9% | 51.63 | 12 |
| 12 | 4 | ELON | 1.8% | 55.26 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 61.5
PLACE
2 16
3 15.5
7 23.5
QUINELLA
3,7 183.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 34
2,7 52.5
3,7 64
FORECAST
7,3 370
TIERCE
7,3,2 1,133
TRIO
2,3,7 164
FIRST 4
2,3,7,9 703
QUARTET
7,3,2,9 14,071
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 25.5
A3 —
5TH DOUBLE
5/3 165
5/7 1,354