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Happy Valley · 2023-01-04 · 19:16

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2023-01-04 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. ALLOY KING, ridden by H Bentley and trained by K H Ting, won by 3/4, with M M JOHNNY second and HEAVENLY THOUGHT third. The 3.1 favourite M M JOHNNY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.10.38
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 ALLOY KING V 1.10.38 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · K H Ting 2 5.9 3/4
2 2 M M JOHNNY B H Bowman · K L Man 4 3.1 3/4
3 6 HEAVENLY THOUGHT B A Hamelin · C H Yip 12 36.0 1
4 1 LORIZ B2 C Y Ho · P F Yiu 5 5.3 1-1/4
5 10 ZACIAN S De Sousa · C S Shum 10 7.8 2-1/4
6 7 SHENRON H-/PC/XB/TT- C L Chau · P C Ng 3 14.0 2-1/2
7 11 TRAVEL GLORY B K Teetan · Y S Tsui 8 8.8 3-3/4
8 4 FORTUNE HERO B/TT R Maia · R Gibson 7 31.0 4-1/2
9 3 WINS ALL B/TT K C Leung · W Y So 9 29.0 4-1/2
10 9 LITTLE PLAYER V-/XB/B2/TT M F Poon · J Richards 1 23.0 5-1/2
11 12 DASHING GENIUS TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 6 20.0 7-1/4
12 5 DAY DAY RICH B/TT L Hewitson · T P Yung 11 22.0 8

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ALLOY KING2. M M JOHNNY+0.75L3. HEAVENLY THOUGHT+1L4. LORIZ+1.25L5. ZACIAN+2.25L6. SHENRON+2.5L7. TRAVEL GLORY+3.75L8. FORTUNE HERO+4.5L9. WINS ALL+4.5L10. LITTLE PLAYER+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick M M JOHNNY (16.2%) finished 2nd — the winner ALLOY KING was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 M M JOHNNY 16.2% 6.17 2
2 11 TRAVEL GLORY 11.8% 8.48 7
3 10 ZACIAN 10.8% 9.27 5
4 12 DASHING GENIUS 10.2% 9.82 11
5 9 LITTLE PLAYER 9.1% 10.96 10
6 8 ALLOY KING 8.9% 11.25 1
7 1 LORIZ 7.4% 13.49 4
8 5 DAY DAY RICH 7.2% 13.91 12
9 3 WINS ALL 6.5% 15.46 9
10 7 SHENRON 4.7% 21.09 6
11 4 FORTUNE HERO 4.1% 24.27 8
12 6 HEAVENLY THOUGHT 3.1% 32.45 3
M M JOHNNYTRAVEL GLORYZACIANDASHING GENIUSLITTLE PLAYERALLOY KING — wonLORIZDAY DAY RICHWINS ALLSHENRONFORTUNE HEROHEAVENLY THOUGHT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 59.5

PLACE

2 13.5

6 94

8 19.5

QUINELLA

2,8 105.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 189

2,8 40

6,8 309.5

FORECAST

8,2 229

TIERCE

8,2,6 5,550

TRIO

2,6,8 949

FIRST 4

1,2,6,8 809

QUARTET

8,2,6,1 22,755

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

12/2 69

12/8 789.5

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 21.5