Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2023-01-04 · 21:46

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course A 11 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2023-01-04 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. FARIBAULT, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by P C Ng, won by SH, with UNIVERSAL CROWN second and PACHISI third. The 1.6 favourite JUNEAU FLASH finished 5th.

Result

Official · 0.57.31
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 FARIBAULT B 0.57.31 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · P C Ng 4 9.3 SH
2 12 UNIVERSAL CROWN B V Borges · D J Whyte 10 151.0 SH
3 8 PACHISI CP1/XB1 C Y Ho · J Richards 7 20.0 1/2
4 3 SERGEANT PEPPER K Teetan · Y S Tsui 3 10.0 1
5 4 JUNEAU FLASH Z Purton · J Size 5 1.6 1-3/4
6 1 AMAZING ROCKY H Bowman · T P Yung 1 6.8 2
7 9 MODEST GENTLEMAN TT M L Yeung · L Ho 2 130.0 2-1/2
8 10 JAZZ STEED B/TT H Bentley · C Fownes 11 50.0 2-1/2
9 11 ONE FOR ALL B/TT R Maia · R Gibson 8 32.0 3-1/2
10 2 FABULOUS EIGHT B/TT K C Leung · P F Yiu 9 31.0 4
11 5 CIRCUIT SEVEN H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 6 9.9 4
6 REGENCY STAR M F Poon · C S Shum

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FARIBAULT2. UNIVERSAL CROWN+0.1L3. PACHISI+0.5L4. SERGEANT PEPPER+1L5. JUNEAU FLASH+1.75L6. AMAZING ROCKY+2L7. MODEST GENTLEMAN+2.5L8. JAZZ STEED+2.5L9. ONE FOR ALL+3.5L10. FABULOUS EIGHT+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick JUNEAU FLASH (23.1%) finished 5th — the winner FARIBAULT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 JUNEAU FLASH 23.1% 4.33 5
2 7 FARIBAULT 19.1% 5.22 1
3 1 AMAZING ROCKY 18.9% 5.28 6
4 3 SERGEANT PEPPER 8.6% 11.66 4
5 5 CIRCUIT SEVEN 7.8% 12.81 11
6 11 ONE FOR ALL 7.1% 14.02 9
7 2 FABULOUS EIGHT 4.8% 20.78 10
8 8 PACHISI 4.8% 20.80 3
9 10 JAZZ STEED 3.2% 31.13 8
10 12 UNIVERSAL CROWN 1.4% 69.31 2
11 9 MODEST GENTLEMAN 1.1% 94.87 7
JUNEAU FLASHFARIBAULT — wonAMAZING ROCKYSERGEANT PEPPERCIRCUIT SEVENONE FOR ALLFABULOUS EIGHTPACHISIJAZZ STEEDUNIVERSAL CROWNMODEST GENTLEMAN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 93.5

PLACE

7 19

8 39

12 193.5

QUINELLA

7,12 5,778

QUINELLA PLACE

7,8 167.5

7,12 1,163.5

8,12 1,897

FORECAST

7,12 7,455

TIERCE

7,12,8 76,807

TRIO

7,8,12 17,165

FIRST 4

3,7,8,12 14,713

QUARTET

7,12,8,3 408,629

All pools (4 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

5,6,11/7,8,12 1,749,902

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 39

6TH DOUBLE

5/7 1,670.5

5/12 2,614

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

7,8,10/5,6,11/Any Combination 202,109