Happy Valley · 2023-01-04 · 18:46
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2023-01-04 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. AMAZING NEWS, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/4, with CHARIZARD second and REGENCY MASTER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite OUR CREED finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | AMAZING NEWS Closed strongly E/P 1.40.59 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · C Fownes | M L Yeung | C Fownes | 11 | 7.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 5 | CHARIZARD Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · A T Millard | L Ferraris | A T Millard | 1 | 8.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 8 | REGENCY MASTER Closed strongly B/TT H Bowman · C S Shum | H Bowman | C S Shum | 2 | 7.7 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 7 | BEAUTY NOVA Closed strongly H-/TT V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 4 | 9.9 | 4-1/2 |
| 5 | 3 | OUR CREED V Y L Chung · K H Ting | Y L Chung | K H Ting | 6 | 4.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 6 | 9 | FAITHFUL TRINITY B/TT L Hewitson · W Y So | L Hewitson | W Y So | 9 | 20.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 7 | 2 | FLASH FAMOUS Closed strongly B/TT S De Sousa · C H Yip | S De Sousa | C H Yip | 8 | 6.1 | 7-1/2 |
| 8 | 1 | WIN WIN CHARITY XB-/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 3 | 18.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 9 | 4 | STAR OF GLORY B K H Chan · C W Chang | K H Chan | C W Chang | 10 | 16.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 10 | 10 | PRIDE OF DRAGON Led early V/TT R Maia · J Richards | R Maia | J Richards | 7 | 30.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 11 | 6 | JACK WIN B/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 5 | 13.0 | 13-3/4 |
| 12 | 11 | SURE WIN WIN B C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 12 | 18.0 | 14-1/4 |
| — | 0 | MISTER ARM H Bowman · Y S Tsui | H Bowman | Y S Tsui | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | FLASH FAMOUS | 17.8% | 5.62 | 7 |
| 2 | 6 | JACK WIN | 16.5% | 6.08 | 11 |
| 3 | 3 | OUR CREED | 10.1% | 9.88 | 5 |
| 4 | 12 | AMAZING NEWS | 9.3% | 10.78 | 1 |
| 5 | 11 | SURE WIN WIN | 9.2% | 10.91 | 12 |
| 6 | 4 | STAR OF GLORY | 7.9% | 12.71 | 9 |
| 7 | 7 | BEAUTY NOVA | 6.9% | 14.46 | 4 |
| 8 | 10 | PRIDE OF DRAGON | 5.9% | 17.01 | 10 |
| 9 | 9 | FAITHFUL TRINITY | 5.3% | 18.82 | 6 |
| 10 | 5 | CHARIZARD | 5.1% | 19.75 | 2 |
| 11 | 8 | REGENCY MASTER | 4.3% | 23.15 | 3 |
| 12 | 1 | WIN WIN CHARITY | 1.8% | 54.46 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 78.5
PLACE
5 24.5
8 30.5
12 25.5
QUINELLA
5,12 326.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,8 129.5
5,12 100.5
8,12 127.5
FORECAST
12,5 615
TIERCE
12,5,8 4,795
TRIO
5,8,12 913
FIRST 4
5,7,8,12 1,873
QUARTET
12,5,8,7 44,631
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 25.5
A3 —