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Happy Valley · 2023-01-04 · 22:53

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course A 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.09.32
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 GOLD GOLD BABY TT 1.09.32 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 2 3.6 3/4
2 0 BEAUTY CHARGE H/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 5 9.2 3/4
3 0 GOLDEN LINK K C Leung · P F Yiu 1 20.0 1-1/4
4 0 STORMTROUPER E/TT S De Sousa · C H Yip 6 25.0 2
5 0 COBHFIELD XB K Teetan · A T Millard 4 14.0 2-1/4
6 0 NICCONI COUNTY TT H Bowman · C Fownes 9 22.0 2-3/4
7 0 HEROIC MASTER TT Z Purton · F C Lor 3 2.1 3
9 0 NAMJONG SINGS B M F Poon · C S Shum 10 59.0 6-3/4
10 0 LORD THUNDER XB-/CP1/TT- L Hewitson · D A Hayes 12 37.0 13-1/2
11 0 SUMMIT CHEERS TT H T Mo · D J Hall 11 138.0 16
12 0 HAPPY SHARING CP/TT- Y L Chung · P C Ng 7 20.0 19-1/2
— 0 OUR LUCKY GLORY SR H Bentley · D J Whyte — 17.0 4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2023-01-04 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. GOLD GOLD BABY, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 3/4, with BEAUTY CHARGE second and GOLDEN LINK third. The 2.1 favourite HEROIC MASTER finished 7th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOLD GOLD BABY—2. BEAUTY CHARGE+0.75L3. GOLDEN LINK+1.25L4. STORMTROUPER+2L5. COBHFIELD+2.25L6. NICCONI COUNTY+2.75L7. HEROIC MASTER+3L9. NAMJONG SINGS+6.75L10. LORD THUNDER+13.5L11. SUMMIT CHEERS+16L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick HEROIC MASTER (30.3%) finished 7th — the winner GOLD GOLD BABY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 HEROIC MASTER 30.3% 3.30 7
2 0 GOLD GOLD BABY 17.2% 5.81 1
3 0 BEAUTY CHARGE 11.0% 9.12 2
4 0 NICCONI COUNTY 7.2% 13.92 6
5 0 STORMTROUPER 6.2% 16.10 4
6 0 COBHFIELD 6.1% 16.39 5
7 0 OUR LUCKY GLORY 5.5% 18.33 —
8 0 NAMJONG SINGS 5.2% 19.10 9
9 0 HAPPY SHARING 3.7% 26.69 12
10 0 LORD THUNDER 3.4% 29.63 10
11 0 GOLDEN LINK 3.2% 31.06 3
12 0 SUMMIT CHEERS 1.0% 103.54 11
HEROIC MASTERGOLD GOLD BABY — wonBEAUTY CHARGENICCONI COUNTYSTORMTROUPERCOBHFIELDOUR LUCKY GLORYNAMJONG SINGSHAPPY SHARINGLORD THUNDERGOLDEN LINKSUMMIT CHEERS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 36.5

PLACE

1 28

9 15

10 45.5

QUINELLA

1,9 204.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,9 70.5

1,10 203

9,10 86.5

FORECAST

9,1 245

TIERCE

9,1,10 2,501

TRIO

1,9,10 940

FIRST 4

1,9,10,11 1,418

QUARTET

9,1,10,11 15,789

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 13.5

A3 —

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,5,6/1,9,10 57,659

8TH DOUBLE

5/1 60.5

5/9 182

SIX UP

5,7/7,8/5,11/7,12/5,6/1,9 298,445

7/7/5/7/5/9 650,840

2 [C Y Ho] —

1 [C S Shum] —

TREBLE

7/5/1 1,042

7/5/9 2,443