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Happy Valley · 2023-01-04 · 20:16

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course A 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.41.63
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 KUNG FU TEA Closed strongly B 1.41.63 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · D J Hall 3 5.8 SH
2 0 CHILL CHIBI Closed strongly TT1 C L Chau · C S Shum 1 61.0 SH
3 0 YOUNG LIFE FOREVER Closed strongly H Bentley · C Fownes 9 15.0 1/2
4 0 PACKING MONKEYKING Closed strongly K C Leung · L Ho 5 7.5 1-1/4
5 0 COPARTNER FIONN Closed strongly H/PC/TT C Y Ho · J Richards 7 28.0 2
6 0 KUNGFUMASTER PANDA Led early B/TT Y L Chung · P C Ng 11 20.0 2
7 0 HAPPY JAI JAI TT M L Yeung · T P Yung 4 9.1 2-3/4
8 0 CONCERTO Closed strongly XB1/TT V Borges · K H Ting 8 15.0 3-1/2
9 0 CORDYCEPS ONE B/H2 S De Sousa · K W Lui 6 6.5 4-1/4
10 0 WIDE BLUE YONDER Closed strongly CP/XB1/TT H Bowman · D A Hayes 12 7.6 4-1/2
11 0 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE V R Maia · P F Yiu 2 6.4 6-1/2
12 0 RAINBOW LIGHT B/TT K Teetan · D J Whyte 10 7.9 12

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2023-01-04 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. KUNG FU TEA, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by D J Hall, won by SH, with CHILL CHIBI second and YOUNG LIFE FOREVER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 5.8 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KUNG FU TEA—2. CHILL CHIBI+0.1L3. YOUNG LIFE FOREVER+0.5L4. PACKING MONKEYKING+1.25L5. COPARTNER FIONN+2L6. KUNGFUMASTER PANDA+2L7. HAPPY JAI JAI+2.75L8. CONCERTO+3.5L9. CORDYCEPS ONE+4.25L10. WIDE BLUE YONDER+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick CORDYCEPS ONE (19.3%) finished 9th — the winner KUNG FU TEA was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 CORDYCEPS ONE 19.3% 5.19 9
2 0 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE 10.4% 9.66 11
3 0 HAPPY JAI JAI 9.7% 10.34 7
4 0 RAINBOW LIGHT 9.5% 10.52 12
5 0 KUNG FU TEA 8.6% 11.58 1
6 0 WIDE BLUE YONDER 8.6% 11.61 10
7 0 CHILL CHIBI 8.2% 12.21 2
8 0 KUNGFUMASTER PANDA 7.3% 13.67 6
9 0 PACKING MONKEYKING 7.0% 14.23 4
10 0 CONCERTO 4.8% 20.65 8
11 0 COPARTNER FIONN 4.6% 21.58 5
12 0 YOUNG LIFE FOREVER 1.9% 51.40 3
CORDYCEPS ONEWINWIN THIRTYTHREEHAPPY JAI JAIRAINBOW LIGHTKUNG FU TEA — wonWIDE BLUE YONDERCHILL CHIBIKUNGFUMASTER PANDAPACKING MONKEYKINGCONCERTOCOPARTNER FIONNYOUNG LIFE FOREVER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 58

PLACE

5 157.5

6 53

7 17.5

QUINELLA

5,7 1,812

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 1,615

5,7 472

6,7 155.5

FORECAST

7,5 2,312

TIERCE

7,5,6 37,745

TRIO

5,6,7 11,668

FIRST 4

5,6,7,9 16,793

QUARTET

7,5,6,9 390,077

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 24.5

3RD DOUBLE

7/5 366.5

7/7 139.5