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Happy Valley · 2023-01-04 · 20:46

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2023-01-04 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. KING ECCELLENTE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D J Whyte, won by HD, with RIGHTEOUS ARION second and GLORY BO BO third. The 3.5 favourite BEAUTY MISSION finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.10.55
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 KING ECCELLENTE CP/H/XB 1.10.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D J Whyte 9 6.0 HD
2 8 RIGHTEOUS ARION H/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 6 33.0 HD
3 10 GLORY BO BO B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 10 6.0 1/2
4 5 JUNE PLANET C Y Ho · C Fownes 4 6.8 1/2
5 2 BEAUTY MISSION CP/SR/TT1 H Bowman · F C Lor 2 3.5 1-1/4
6 12 YOUNG HORIZON M L Yeung · D A Hayes 1 29.0 2
7 1 ACT OF FAITH Z Purton · J Size 11 3.7 2-1/2
8 3 COMMANDING MISSILE B/H/TT A Hamelin · J Richards 5 38.0 2-3/4
9 9 SUPER JOY P K C Leung · L Ho 8 161.0 3
10 11 M M NEBULA B-/TT S De Sousa · K L Man 7 15.0 3-1/4
11 4 HERCULES B/TT L Hewitson · C H Yip 12 62.0 4-1/2
12 6 PLENTY PLENTY C L Chau · T P Yung 3 140.0 12

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KING ECCELLENTE2. RIGHTEOUS ARION+0.2L3. GLORY BO BO+0.5L4. JUNE PLANET+0.5L5. BEAUTY MISSION+1.25L6. YOUNG HORIZON+2L7. ACT OF FAITH+2.5L8. COMMANDING MISSILE+2.75L9. SUPER JOY+3L10. M M NEBULA+3.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ACT OF FAITH (22.1%) finished 7th — the winner KING ECCELLENTE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 ACT OF FAITH 22.1% 4.52 7
2 2 BEAUTY MISSION 19.6% 5.10 5
3 7 KING ECCELLENTE 18.9% 5.29 1
4 10 GLORY BO BO 14.0% 7.15 3
5 5 JUNE PLANET 6.1% 16.37 4
6 8 RIGHTEOUS ARION 4.1% 24.55 2
7 4 HERCULES 3.8% 26.36 11
8 11 M M NEBULA 3.4% 29.06 10
9 3 COMMANDING MISSILE 2.9% 34.33 8
10 12 YOUNG HORIZON 2.8% 35.91 6
11 9 SUPER JOY 1.5% 68.07 9
12 6 PLENTY PLENTY 0.8% 124.64 12
ACT OF FAITHBEAUTY MISSIONKING ECCELLENTE — wonGLORY BO BOJUNE PLANETRIGHTEOUS ARIONHERCULESM M NEBULACOMMANDING MISSILEYOUNG HORIZONSUPER JOYPLENTY PLENTY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 60.5

PLACE

7 21.5

8 59.5

10 21.5

QUINELLA

7,8 1,179

QUINELLA PLACE

7,8 315.5

7,10 68

8,10 260

FORECAST

7,8 2,547

TIERCE

7,8,10 14,628

TRIO

7,8,10 1,808

FIRST 4

5,7,8,10 2,738

QUARTET

7,8,10,5 88,759

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

5,6,7/7,8,10 1,688,714

3 PICK 1

A2 21

A3

A1

4TH DOUBLE

7/7 370.5

7/8 354