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Happy Valley · 2023-02-01 · 19:16

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1800m Course A 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2023-02-01 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. REGENCY MASTER, ridden by M F Poon and trained by C S Shum, won by HD, with DAZZLING FELLOW second and SMILING FACE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite LOYAL AMBITION finished 10th.

Result

Official · 1.49.86
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 REGENCY MASTER Closed strongly B/TT 1.49.86 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · C S Shum 12 20.0 HD
2 1 DAZZLING FELLOW Closed strongly B/XB H Bowman · D J Hall 2 8.8 HD
3 10 SMILING FACE Closed strongly B/SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 8 7.9 3/4
4 12 CABLE SPEED Closed strongly CP-/TT H T Mo · C W Chang 7 46.0 2-1/4
5 3 GLORIOUS LOVER Closed strongly B C Y Ho · C H Yip 10 14.0 4-1/4
6 9 MOONLUCK Z Purton · T P Yung 5 4.0 4-1/4
7 2 BALLISTIC MAN B/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 4 28.0 5-1/2
8 11 FORTUNE PATROL Closed strongly B/H/XB R Maia · A T Millard 9 19.0 6-1/4
9 8 FORTUNE TRIPLE K Teetan · Y S Tsui 3 11.0 6-1/2
10 5 LOYAL AMBITION Led early V/TT Y L Chung · C Fownes 1 3.0 6-3/4
11 6 HANG'S CHOICE B/TT C L Chau · W Y So 11 29.0 8-3/4
12 7 SUCCESS ALLSTARS B V Borges · R Gibson 6 19.0 25-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. REGENCY MASTER2. DAZZLING FELLOW+0.2L3. SMILING FACE+0.75L4. CABLE SPEED+2.25L5. GLORIOUS LOVER+4.25L6. MOONLUCK+4.25L7. BALLISTIC MAN+5.5L8. FORTUNE PATROL+6.25L9. FORTUNE TRIPLE+6.5L10. LOYAL AMBITION+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick LOYAL AMBITION (22.7%) finished 10th — the winner REGENCY MASTER was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 LOYAL AMBITION 22.7% 4.41 10
2 9 MOONLUCK 19.7% 5.08 6
3 1 DAZZLING FELLOW 13.3% 7.49 2
4 8 FORTUNE TRIPLE 11.7% 8.53 9
5 4 REGENCY MASTER 5.7% 17.56 1
6 7 SUCCESS ALLSTARS 5.0% 19.80 12
7 3 GLORIOUS LOVER 4.8% 20.76 5
8 10 SMILING FACE 4.8% 20.99 3
9 12 CABLE SPEED 4.5% 22.37 4
10 6 HANG'S CHOICE 3.5% 28.70 11
11 11 FORTUNE PATROL 2.4% 41.13 8
12 2 BALLISTIC MAN 1.8% 54.21 7
LOYAL AMBITIONMOONLUCKDAZZLING FELLOWFORTUNE TRIPLEREGENCY MASTER — wonSUCCESS ALLSTARSGLORIOUS LOVERSMILING FACECABLE SPEEDHANG'S CHOICEFORTUNE PATROLBALLISTIC MAN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 206.5

PLACE

1 28

4 68

10 24

QUINELLA

1,4 1,078

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 246.5

1,10 104.5

4,10 262.5

FORECAST

4,1 3,091

TIERCE

4,1,10 17,759

TRIO

1,4,10 1,952

FIRST 4

1,4,10,12 14,890

QUARTET

4,1,10,12 525,269

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

1,2/1 40.5

1,2/4 908.5

3 PICK 1

A3 28

A2

A1