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Happy Valley · 2023-02-01 · 22:52

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2023-02-01 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. JOLLY RULER, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by P F Yiu, won by HD, with WINNING ICEY second and SCIENCE PATCH third. The 3.0 favourite GOLD GOLD BABY finished 11th.

Result

Official · 1.09.77
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 JOLLY RULER H2 1.09.77 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · P F Yiu 4 26.0 HD
2 8 WINNING ICEY TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 12 14.0 HD
3 11 SCIENCE PATCH V A Badel · P C Ng 1 9.7 HD
4 6 BUNDLE OF CHARM K Teetan · J Size 10 27.0 3/4
5 3 ARMOUR EAGLE B/XB/TT L Hewitson · J Richards 2 5.1 1
6 1 EXCELLENT PEERS H/XB Z Purton · F C Lor 11 5.2 1-3/4
7 10 GOLDEN LINK K C Leung · P F Yiu 8 22.0 2
8 12 STORMTROUPER E/TT S De Sousa · C H Yip 7 20.0 2-1/2
9 2 SEIZING THE MOMENT B H Bowman · J Size 6 17.0 2-3/4
10 4 VALIANT ELEGANCE B-/SR1/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 5 69.0 4-1/2
11 7 GOLD GOLD BABY TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 3 3.0 4-1/2
12 5 OUTGATE H1/TT1 Y L Chung · A S Cruz 9 11.0 5

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. JOLLY RULER2. WINNING ICEY+0.2L3. SCIENCE PATCH+0.2L4. BUNDLE OF CHARM+0.75L5. ARMOUR EAGLE+1L6. EXCELLENT PEERS+1.75L7. GOLDEN LINK+2L8. STORMTROUPER+2.5L9. SEIZING THE MOMENT+2.75L10. VALIANT ELEGANCE+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick GOLD GOLD BABY (26.7%) finished 11th — the winner JOLLY RULER was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 GOLD GOLD BABY 26.7% 3.74 11
2 1 EXCELLENT PEERS 14.9% 6.73 6
3 12 STORMTROUPER 9.1% 10.97 8
4 3 ARMOUR EAGLE 9.0% 11.11 5
5 11 SCIENCE PATCH 7.0% 14.25 3
6 8 WINNING ICEY 6.7% 14.92 2
7 2 SEIZING THE MOMENT 6.6% 15.24 9
8 6 BUNDLE OF CHARM 5.4% 18.66 4
9 10 GOLDEN LINK 4.8% 20.84 7
10 9 JOLLY RULER 4.3% 23.47 1
11 5 OUTGATE 3.2% 31.15 12
12 4 VALIANT ELEGANCE 2.4% 41.92 10
GOLD GOLD BABYEXCELLENT PEERSSTORMTROUPERARMOUR EAGLESCIENCE PATCHWINNING ICEYSEIZING THE MOMENTBUNDLE OF CHARMGOLDEN LINKJOLLY RULER — wonOUTGATEVALIANT ELEGANCE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 269

PLACE

8 45

9 71

11 26.5

QUINELLA

8,9 1,591.5

QUINELLA PLACE

8,9 424

8,11 200

9,11 305

FORECAST

9,8 3,767

TIERCE

9,8,11 27,977

TRIO

8,9,11 3,393

FIRST 4

6,8,9,11 17,759

QUARTET

9,8,11,6 512,819

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 19.5

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

4,7,11/8,9,11 4,022,528

8TH DOUBLE

7/8 770.5

7/9 7,776

SIX UP

2,4/3,6/4,8/2,7/4,7/8,9 69,997

2 [P F Yiu]

1 [Z Purton]

TREBLE

7/7/8 2,558

7/7/9 26,723