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Happy Valley · 2023-02-01 · 21:46

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2023-02-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. RIGHTEOUS ARION, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with COMPASSION SUPER second and KING ECCELLENTE third. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.57
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 RIGHTEOUS ARION H/TT 1.09.57 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · A S Cruz 2 2.5 N
2 2 COMPASSION SUPER TT H Bowman · K L Man 5 6.5 N
3 5 KING ECCELLENTE CP/H/XB K Teetan · D J Whyte 9 11.0 N
4 8 CHARMING STEED TT K H Chan · C Fownes 6 42.0 1-3/4
5 9 FORTUNE CARRIER B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 8 18.0 1-3/4
6 3 MEGA BONUS V Y L Chung · P F Yiu 12 16.0 2
7 11 CORDYCEPS ONE B/H R Maia · K W Lui 1 9.4 2-1/4
8 12 HAPPY TANGO B M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 4 41.0 2-1/4
9 10 SHADOW RUNNER TT L Hewitson · J Richards 10 39.0 3-1/4
10 1 ACT OF FAITH A Hamelin · J Size 3 9.7 3-1/2
11 6 LYRICAL MOTION TT A Badel · W Y So 11 32.0 3-3/4
12 4 RACING FIGHTER B/TT Z Purton · C H Yip 7 7.0 4-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RIGHTEOUS ARION2. COMPASSION SUPER+0.05L3. KING ECCELLENTE+0.05L4. CHARMING STEED+1.75L5. FORTUNE CARRIER+1.75L6. MEGA BONUS+2L7. CORDYCEPS ONE+2.25L8. HAPPY TANGO+2.25L9. SHADOW RUNNER+3.25L10. ACT OF FAITH+3.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick COMPASSION SUPER (21.1%) finished 2nd — the winner RIGHTEOUS ARION was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 COMPASSION SUPER 21.1% 4.74 2
2 7 RIGHTEOUS ARION 15.0% 6.65 1
3 4 RACING FIGHTER 14.1% 7.08 12
4 5 KING ECCELLENTE 11.9% 8.43 3
5 11 CORDYCEPS ONE 8.9% 11.18 7
6 1 ACT OF FAITH 7.0% 14.32 10
7 3 MEGA BONUS 5.0% 20.12 6
8 6 LYRICAL MOTION 4.6% 21.94 11
9 10 SHADOW RUNNER 4.1% 24.53 9
10 8 CHARMING STEED 3.5% 28.96 4
11 9 FORTUNE CARRIER 2.7% 37.19 5
12 12 HAPPY TANGO 2.2% 45.58 8
COMPASSION SUPERRIGHTEOUS ARION — wonRACING FIGHTERKING ECCELLENTECORDYCEPS ONEACT OF FAITHMEGA BONUSLYRICAL MOTIONSHADOW RUNNERCHARMING STEEDFORTUNE CARRIERHAPPY TANGO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 25

PLACE

2 20

5 30

7 14

QUINELLA

2,7 88

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 114

2,7 37.5

5,7 52

FORECAST

7,2 142

TIERCE

7,2,5 1,148

TRIO

2,5,7 272

FIRST 4

2,5,7,8 2,544

QUARTET

7,2,5,8 25,716

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 18.5

A3

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,8/2,5,7 36,095

6TH DOUBLE

8/2 441

8/7 629

TRIPLE TRIO

3,6,7/2,4,8/2,5,7 2,001,138

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,6,7/2,4,8/Any Combination 7,018