Happy Valley · 2023-02-01 · 20:16
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2023-02-01 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. CHILL CHIBI, ridden by C L Chau and trained by C S Shum, won by 2, with VIVA POPCORN second and LEGION OF MERIT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite PACKING SUCCEEDER finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | CHILL CHIBI Closed strongly TT 1.40.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 8 | 9.9 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | VIVA POPCORN Closed strongly H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 6 | 11.0 | 2 |
| 3 | 6 | LEGION OF MERIT Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 3 | 4.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 10 | RIVER VIEWS H Bentley · T P Yung | H Bentley | T P Yung | 1 | 9.3 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 11 | V CHEVALIERS B/TT S De Sousa · K L Man | S De Sousa | K L Man | 2 | 7.3 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 5 | COPARTNER FIONN Closed strongly PC-/H/B1/TT H Bowman · J Richards | H Bowman | J Richards | 4 | 9.2 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 8 | PACKING SUCCEEDER Z Purton · L Ho | Z Purton | L Ho | 7 | 3.9 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 3 | BILLIONAIRE SECRET Closed strongly H/PC/XB K C Leung · P C Ng | K C Leung | P C Ng | 5 | 14.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 9 | 1 | KYRUS UNICORN Closed strongly VO-/B2 L Ferraris · D J Hall | L Ferraris | D J Hall | 12 | 20.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | SUPER EAGLE H2 L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 11 | 68.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 11 | 12 | DREAM CATCHER Led early B M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 9 | 122.0 | 17-1/4 |
| 12 | 9 | FIRE BALL A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 10 | 43.0 | 51 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | LEGION OF MERIT | 22.7% | 4.40 | 3 |
| 2 | 8 | PACKING SUCCEEDER | 19.7% | 5.07 | 7 |
| 3 | 11 | V CHEVALIERS | 11.2% | 8.94 | 5 |
| 4 | 5 | COPARTNER FIONN | 8.8% | 11.41 | 6 |
| 5 | 10 | RIVER VIEWS | 8.2% | 12.25 | 4 |
| 6 | 2 | VIVA POPCORN | 7.3% | 13.79 | 2 |
| 7 | 4 | CHILL CHIBI | 6.4% | 15.73 | 1 |
| 8 | 3 | BILLIONAIRE SECRET | 5.0% | 19.88 | 8 |
| 9 | 1 | KYRUS UNICORN | 4.8% | 20.90 | 9 |
| 10 | 9 | FIRE BALL | 3.8% | 26.38 | 12 |
| 11 | 7 | SUPER EAGLE | 1.4% | 69.52 | 10 |
| 12 | 12 | DREAM CATCHER | 0.8% | 122.23 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 99.5
PLACE
2 29.5
4 32.5
6 17
QUINELLA
2,4 524.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 141.5
2,6 65.5
4,6 73
FORECAST
4,2 914
TIERCE
4,2,6 2,563
TRIO
2,4,6 423
FIRST 4
2,4,6,10 1,245
QUARTET
4,2,6,10 32,868
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 33.5
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE
1/2 69
1/4 403