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Happy Valley · 2023-02-01 · 20:16

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2023-02-01 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. CHILL CHIBI, ridden by C L Chau and trained by C S Shum, won by 2, with VIVA POPCORN second and LEGION OF MERIT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite PACKING SUCCEEDER finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.40.43
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 CHILL CHIBI Closed strongly TT 1.40.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · C S Shum 8 9.9 2
2 2 VIVA POPCORN Closed strongly H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 6 11.0 2
3 6 LEGION OF MERIT Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · W Y So 3 4.0 3-1/4
4 10 RIVER VIEWS H Bentley · T P Yung 1 9.3 3-3/4
5 11 V CHEVALIERS B/TT S De Sousa · K L Man 2 7.3 4-1/4
6 5 COPARTNER FIONN Closed strongly PC-/H/B1/TT H Bowman · J Richards 4 9.2 4-1/2
7 8 PACKING SUCCEEDER Z Purton · L Ho 7 3.9 4-3/4
8 3 BILLIONAIRE SECRET Closed strongly H/PC/XB K C Leung · P C Ng 5 14.0 7-1/2
9 1 KYRUS UNICORN Closed strongly VO-/B2 L Ferraris · D J Hall 12 20.0 7-3/4
10 7 SUPER EAGLE H2 L Hewitson · D A Hayes 11 68.0 11-1/4
11 12 DREAM CATCHER Led early B M L Yeung · K H Ting 9 122.0 17-1/4
12 9 FIRE BALL A Hamelin · C H Yip 10 43.0 51

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHILL CHIBI2. VIVA POPCORN+2L3. LEGION OF MERIT+3.25L4. RIVER VIEWS+3.75L5. V CHEVALIERS+4.25L6. COPARTNER FIONN+4.5L7. PACKING SUCCEEDER+4.75L8. BILLIONAIRE SECRET+7.5L9. KYRUS UNICORN+7.75L10. SUPER EAGLE+11.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick LEGION OF MERIT (22.7%) finished 3rd — the winner CHILL CHIBI was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 LEGION OF MERIT 22.7% 4.40 3
2 8 PACKING SUCCEEDER 19.7% 5.07 7
3 11 V CHEVALIERS 11.2% 8.94 5
4 5 COPARTNER FIONN 8.8% 11.41 6
5 10 RIVER VIEWS 8.2% 12.25 4
6 2 VIVA POPCORN 7.3% 13.79 2
7 4 CHILL CHIBI 6.4% 15.73 1
8 3 BILLIONAIRE SECRET 5.0% 19.88 8
9 1 KYRUS UNICORN 4.8% 20.90 9
10 9 FIRE BALL 3.8% 26.38 12
11 7 SUPER EAGLE 1.4% 69.52 10
12 12 DREAM CATCHER 0.8% 122.23 11
LEGION OF MERITPACKING SUCCEEDERV CHEVALIERSCOPARTNER FIONNRIVER VIEWSVIVA POPCORNCHILL CHIBI — wonBILLIONAIRE SECRETKYRUS UNICORNFIRE BALLSUPER EAGLEDREAM CATCHER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 99.5

PLACE

2 29.5

4 32.5

6 17

QUINELLA

2,4 524.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 141.5

2,6 65.5

4,6 73

FORECAST

4,2 914

TIERCE

4,2,6 2,563

TRIO

2,4,6 423

FIRST 4

2,4,6,10 1,245

QUARTET

4,2,6,10 32,868

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 33.5

A1

3RD DOUBLE

1/2 69

1/4 403